采煤工作面是煤矿井下作业最集中的生产场所，也是煤矿瓦斯涌出与事故频发的主要场所。采面瓦斯涌出量大小是设计矿井通风、制定瓦斯预防措施和矿井安全管理的主要依据。本文以铜川下石节高瓦斯矿井为研究对象，主要从三个方面对该矿采面瓦斯进行了预测探讨。 首先，通过对煤层瓦斯含量的分析，确定了影响4-2号煤层瓦斯含量高低的三个主控地质因素，分别是延安组煤系二、三段厚度，煤层顶板含油强度指数，4-2号煤层老顶小街砂岩厚度。以此为依据，采用灰色系统建模理论，建立了4-2号煤层瓦斯含量预测数学模型，并运用该模型对下石节煤矿4-2号煤层的瓦斯含量进行了预测，总结出了煤层瓦斯含量的分布规律，预测结果与地面煤层气参数井实测数据基本吻合。 其次，在对下石节煤矿已采综采工作面瓦斯涌出规律总结分析基础上，确定出了影响采面瓦斯涌出量的五个主控因素，分别是煤层埋藏深度，采面日产量，煤层瓦斯含量，煤层顶板含油强度指数，日回采进度。利用逐步回归分析方法，建立了未采区采面瓦斯涌出量的静态预测模型，编制了采面瓦斯涌出量预测图。 最后，结合影响采面瓦斯涌出量的主控地质与生产因素，应用灰色系统理论，建立了采面瓦斯涌出量的动态预测GM(1.1)模型，对正在回采的219综采面绝对瓦斯涌出量进行了超前预测，所得结论对于适时调整采面通风，加强“一通三防”，预防瓦斯超限具有重要意义。

Coal face is the most centralized production place,meanwhile the main place of gas emission and accident frequency.Gas emission quantity of the coal face is a main aspects in designing coal mine ventilation system,making gas prevention maesures and mine safety management.The paper take Tong Chuan Xia Shijie coal mine as research object.Prediction gas emission quantity of coal face is dicussed mainly from three aspects in the paper. Firstly,By analyzing coal seam gas content,three factors of controlling gas content of the 4-2 coal seam are determined:The thickness from second part to the third part of Yanan formation,Oil-abundance index of the seam roof,Main roof thickness (Xiaojie sandstone) of the 4-2coal seam.Comprehensive consideration of geological factors,based on Grey System Modeling Theory,coal seam gas content prediction model is established,The prediction gas content results are basically consistent with the measured data in the scene.by useing this method in 4-2coal seam in Xia Shijie Through analyzing the results of gas content prediction,The distribution law of coal seam gas content is summarized. Secondly,Based on analyzed and summarized gas emission data of fully-mechanized mining face that has been mined in Xia Shijie mine coal,five main controlling factors of coal face gas emission quantity are determined:embeding depth of coal seam,daily output,coal seam gas content,Oil-abundance of seam roof,daily cdvance.Using the method of stepwise regression,Gas emission prediction model in non-mining areas has been established.the coal face gas emission prediction contour map is drawed. Finally,combined with the main geologic and productive factors which controlling gas emissiom quantity of mining face ,Prsent a model GM(1.1)for the gas emission quantity of the coal face based on the Grey System Theory,the absolute gas emission quantity of 219mining face is predicted.The conclusion has important significance in adjusting mining face ventilation timely,strengthening“one ventition three prevention”, preventing gas overrunning.