滑坡作为最具破坏性的自然灾害之一，严重威胁着人类生命财产安全，并会对基础设施造成重大破坏。滑坡灾害风险评价有助于确定特定地区中发生滑坡灾害风险更大的区域，是缓解和防治滑坡灾害的有效手段。延安市位于陕西省北部，地处黄土高原丘陵沟壑区，地形复杂多样，人类活动对地表的扰动强烈，极易形成滑坡灾害。鉴于此，本文以陕西省延安市为研究区，采用随机森林、XGBoost、CatBoost和LightGBM4种集成学习算法，结合贝叶斯优化方法，开展了滑坡危险性评价；运用层次分析法和熵权法的主客观结合方法分析了滑坡易损性，建立了区域滑坡灾害风险评价体系，揭示了人类活动扰动对滑坡风险性的影响，提出了因地制宜的滑坡灾害防治建议。主要结论如下：

（1）以历史滑坡数据为基础，结合实地调查和多时相遥感数据，构建了滑坡样本数据集，分析了延安市滑坡空间和几何特征。结果表明，延安市滑坡空间分布呈现“北多南少，集聚分布”的格局，南部滑坡具有显著集聚性，北部滑坡数量多但较南部分散。并且在人类活动频繁的地区与道路、河流两侧较为集中。洛川县、延长县、志丹县、子长市和延川县滑坡数量多，密度高。此外，滑坡的几何参数，如周长、面积、最大长度和最大宽度均符合幂律分布规律。

（2）选取13个环境因素构成滑坡危险性评价因子体系，同时满足相关性与多重共线性的要求。基于DBSCAN联合缓冲区采样的负样本余弦相似度为614.36，显著优于仅缓冲区采样获得的负样本。对比各模型ROC曲线、AUC值以及混淆矩阵，结果表明Bayes-CatBoost模型为最优模型，其AUC值为0.877，假阴性率为0.17。Bayes-CatBoost模型的评价结果表明，极低、低、中、高和极高危险区的面积占比分别为33.43%、21.33%、17.59%、15.75%和11.91%。

（3）以人口密度、GDP密度、道路密度、建筑物密度和滑坡致命性作为评价指标，运用层次分析法-熵权法结合的主客观一体化方法进行滑坡灾害易损性评价，结果显示延安市滑坡灾害易损性呈现出“外围低、中心高”的环绕式空间分布。以“风险性=危险性×易损性”作为滑坡灾害风险性评价模型，结果显示延安市滑坡灾害风险性空间分布呈现出“辐射状递减”的分布特点，具体表现为区域中心风险性最高，向外围呈辐射状逐级递减。

（4）2010-2023年，延安市人类活动范围扩张，强度提升，对滑坡风险性造成不同程度的影响。受人类活动扰动的土地利用类型上的滑坡风险性，显著高于非人类活动扰动的土地利用类型上的滑坡风险性，其中建设用地上的滑坡风险性最高。在土地利用类型转变的背景下，从非人类活动扰动的土地利用类型转变为受人类活动扰动的土地利用类型上的滑坡风险性最高，反之，滑坡风险性较低。最后，本研究编制了延安市滑坡灾害风险评价分区图，并提出了因地制宜的防治建议。

Landslides are one of the most destructive natural disasters, which seriously threaten human life and property safety and cause significant damage to infrastructure. Landslide risk assessment helps to identify areas with a higher risk of landslide disasters in a specific region and is an effective means to mitigate and prevent landslide disasters. Yan'an City is located in the northern part of Shaanxi Province, in the hilly and gully area of the Loess Plateau. The terrain is complex and diverse, and human activities have caused strong disturbances to the surface, which is very likely to cause landslide disasters. In view of this, this paper uses four ensemble learning algorithms, random forest, XGBoost, CatBoost and LightGBM, combined with the Bayesian optimization method to carry out landslide hazard assessment; the subjective and objective combination of hierarchical analysis method and entropy weight method is used to analyze the vulnerability of landslides, establish a regional landslide risk assessment system, reveal the impact of human activity disturbance on landslide risk, and put forward landslide disaster prevention and control suggestions tailored to local conditions. The main conclusions are as follows:

(1) Based on historical landslide data and multi-temporal remote sensing data, a sample data set is constructed, and the geometric characteristics of the landslide are interpreted. Combined with the field survey, the spatial and geometric characteristics of landslides in Yan'an were analyzed. The results showed that the spatial distribution of landslides in Yan'an showed a pattern of "more in the north and less in the south, with agglomerated distribution"; they were more concentrated in areas with frequent human activities and on both sides of roads and rivers, and the geometric parameters of landslides conformed to the power law distribution law.

(2) The evaluation factor system composed of elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, stratigraphic lithology, soil type, multi-year average precipitation, NDVI, distance from water system, TWI, SPI, distance from road and land use was selected. Under the premise of meeting the requirements of correlation and multicollinearity, the cosine similarity of negative samples based on DBSCAN combined with buffer sampling was 614.36, which was significantly better than the negative samples obtained by only buffer sampling. Comparing the ROC curves, AUC values and confusion matrices of each model, the results showed that the Bayes-CatBoost model was the optimal model with an AUC value of 0.877 and a false negative rate of 0.17. The evaluation results of the Bayes-CatBoost model show that the area proportions of extremely low, low, medium, high and extremely high risk areas are 33.43%, 21.33%, 17.59%, 15.75% and 11.91% respectively.

(3) The landslide vulnerability is evaluated by using the subjective and objective integration method with population density, GDP density, road density, building density and landslide lethality as evaluation indicators. Taking "risk = hazard × vulnerability" as the risk evaluation model, the results show that the spatial distribution of landslide risk in Yan'an City presents a "radial decrease" distribution characteristic, which is specifically manifested in the highest risk in the regional center and gradually decreases toward the periphery.

(4) From 2010 to 2023, the scope of human activities in Yan'an City expanded and the intensity increased. The landslide risk of land use types disturbed by human activities is significantly higher than that of land use types disturbed by non-human activities, among which the landslide risk on construction land is the highest. In the context of land use type transformation, the landslide risk is highest when the land use type is transformed from non-human activity disturbance to human activity disturbance, and vice versa, the landslide risk is lower.

Finally, this study compiled a landslide disaster risk assessment zoning map for Yan'an City, put forward prevention and control suggestions based on local conditions, and explained the impact of human activity disturbance on landslide risk.

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