<p>矿井水害是威胁煤矿安全、高效生产的主要灾害之一。随着我国煤炭工业重心西移，陕北侏罗纪煤田已成为当前我国重要的煤炭生产基地。该区风化基岩含水层普遍发育，是威胁矿井安全生产的主要含水层之一。分析风化基岩含水层富水性，研究煤层开采覆岩破坏规律，预测开采扰动下风化基岩含水层涌（突）水危险性，对矿井防治水工作具有重要意义。</p> <p>本文以陕北侏罗纪煤田红柳林井田中西部为研究区，在收集研究区地质及水文地质资料的基础上，总结了研究区内4种主要煤层上覆含、隔水层组合类型：松散层透（含）水层-红（黄）土隔水层-风化基岩含水层-正常基岩复合含水层型、松散层透（含）水层-红（黄）土隔水层-风化基岩含水层型、松散层透（含）水层-红（黄）土隔水层-风化基岩-烧变岩含水层-正常基岩复合含水层型、松散层透（含）水层-风化基岩含水层-正常基岩复合含水层型。第四系松散层局部弱至中等富水，风化基岩含水层富水性弱至强，正常基岩复合含水层富水性弱。</p> <p>分析了影响风化基岩含水层富水性的6个控制因素，即风化基岩厚度、岩芯采取率、风化程度、岩性组合、风化基岩顶面标高及砂地比。将风化基岩富水性划分为强、中等、弱和极弱4种类型，基于IFAHP-熵权法求得各因素权重分别为0.239、0.232、0.182、0.1575、0.0815和0.108。应用Bayes判别分析法、GIS空间分析法、随机森林（RF）法和克里金插值法4种方法对研究区风化基岩富水性进行了预测。应用研究区矿井现有水害资料和工作面涌水量资料对4种方法的预测结果进行验证，发现Bayes判别分析法预测结果更加符合实际。</p> <p>基于红柳林井田以往煤层开采覆岩冒裂带钻孔探查资料，确定了该区煤层开采顶板冒采比、裂采比分别为5.5和29.5。据此计算研究区不同区域首采煤层的冒落带、裂隙带发育高度，分析其与风化基岩含水层的导通关系，将研究区冒裂安全性程度分为5个级别，并绘制了研究区不同区域首采煤层的冒裂安全性分区图。</p> <p>依据风化基岩富水性类别和煤层开采冒裂安全性类别的组合关系，将研究区涌（突）水危险性类型划分为安全区、相对安全区、较安全区、中等区、较危险区、相对危险区、危险区和极危险区8种类型。将风化基岩富水性分区预测图与冒裂安全性分区预测图进行叠加分析，编制了研究区不同区域首采煤层开采的涌突水危险性分区预测图。研究区中等以上危险性面积占89.15%，中等及其以下危险性面积占10.85%。极危险区、危险区和相对危险区主要分布于各煤层的剥蚀边界附近，且基本呈北东&mdash;南西向条带状分布。研究成果对红柳林煤矿矿井防治水工作具有重要指导意义，对类似矿井也具有一定参考价值。</p>

<p>Mine water damage is one of the main disasters that threaten the safety and efficient production of coal mines. With the westward shift of the center of my country&#39;s coal industry, the Jurassic coalfields in northern Shaanxi have become an important coal production base in my country. Weathered bedrock aquifers are widely developed in this area and are one of the main aquifers that threaten the safe production of mines. Analyzing the water-richness of weathered bedrock aquifers, studying the damage law of overlying rock in coal seam mining, and predicting the risk of water inrush in weathered bedrock aquifers under mining disturbances are of great significance to mine water control work.</p> <p>This paper takes the central and western parts of the Hongliulin mine field in the Jurassic coalfield in northern Shaanxi as the study area. Based on the collection of geological and hydrogeological data in the study area, this paper summarizes the combination types of 4 main coal seams overlying bearing and aquifers in the study area: loose Layer permeable (inclusive) water layer - red (yellow) clay aquifer - weathered bedrock aquifer - normal bedrock composite aquifer type, loose layer permeable (inclusive) water layer - red (yellow) clay aquifer - weathered Bedrock aquifer type, loose layer permeable (inclusive) water layer - red (yellow) clay aquifer - weathered bedrock - burnt rock aquifer - normal bedrock composite aquifer type, loose layer permeable (inclusive) water layer - Weathered bedrock aquifer - normal bedrock composite aquifer type. The quaternary loose layer is weak to moderately rich in water locally, the weathered bedrock aquifer is weak to strong, and the normal bedrock composite aquifer is weak.</p> <p>Six controlling factors affecting the water richness of the weathered bedrock aquifer are analyzed, namely the thickness of the weathered bedrock, the rate of core extraction, the degree of weathering, the lithologic combination, the elevation of the top surface of the weathered bedrock and the ratio of sand to ground. The weathered bedrock water richness is divided into four types: strong, medium, weak and extremely weak. Based on the IFAHP-Entropy weight method, the weights of each factor are obtained as 0.239, 0.232, 0.182, 0.1575, 0.0815 and 0.108, respectively. Four methods of Bayes discriminant analysis method, GIS spatial analysis method, random forest (RF) method and Kriging interpolation method were used to predict the water-richness of the weathered bedrock in the study area. The prediction results of the four methods are verified by using the existing mine water hazard data and the water inflow data of the working face in the study area, and it is found that the prediction results of the Bayes discriminant analysis method are more realistic.</p> <p>Based on the drilling exploration data of the overlying rock cracking zone in Hongliulin mine field in the past, it is determined that the roof mining ratio and cracking ratio of coal seam mining in this area are 5.5 and 29.5, respectively. Based on this, the development height of the caving zone and fissure zone of the first mining coal seam in different areas of the study area was calculated, and the conduction relationship with the weathered bedrock aquifer was analyzed. The safety zoning map of the first mining coal seam in different areas of the study area is presented.</p> <p>According to the combination relationship between the weathered bedrock water-rich category and the coal seam mining cracking safety category, the risk types of water inrush in the study area are divided into safe area, relatively safe area, relatively safe area, medium area, relatively dangerous area, relatively safe area. 8 types of hazardous area, hazardous area and extremely hazardous area. The weathered bedrock water-rich zoning prediction map and the cracking safety zoning prediction map are superimposed and analyzed, and the water inrush risk zoning prediction map of the first coal seam mining in different areas of the study area is compiled. In the study area, 89.15% of the study area was at moderate or higher risk, and 10.85% was at moderate or lower risk. The extremely dangerous area, the dangerous area and the relatively dangerous area are mainly distributed near the denudation boundary of each coal seam, and are basically distributed in a northeast-southwest strip. The research results have important guiding significance for the prevention and control of water in Hongliulin coal mine, and also have certain reference value for similar mines.</p>

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