商业银行作为以货币资金为经营对象的特殊企业，在金融市场中处于核心地位。商业银行本质为风险运营企业，一旦出现突发事件，银行风险的普遍性与扩散性会使其迅速向整个金融市场扩散，给中国经济发展造成巨大的消极影响。
    本文以邢台市农商银行为主要研究对象，从商业银行风险及其成因入手，通过问卷调查识别出了邢台市农商行存在多方面风险防范意识薄弱，采用德尔菲法对风险指标进行筛选，进而运用层次分析法，计算出各类风险的权重，基于层次分析法的权重结果，使用模糊综合评价法对风险指标进行进一步的论证。
    通过有以上分析论证，得出以下重要结论：（1）邢台市农商银行技术风险、经营管理风险、人员管理风险三个风险当中，人员管理风险所占权重较大，特别是其中的人员结构不合理是邢台市农商行不可忽视的重大风险；（2）邢台市农商银行员工结构不合理问题仍然显著，人员素质的不足问题仍然存在；（3）技术风险、经营管理风险管理方面存在诸多不足之处。最后，根据给出了健全风险管理理念、优化风险管理方法、构建风险评级及监督体系、优化内部风险管理职能体系、防范经营风险、加强内部控制与员工管理、优化技术风险管理、防范技术风险等多个方面的对策建议。
    本文有一定的应用和参考价值。从邢台市农商银行的角度看，有利于邢台市农商银行完善银行管理策略，针对管理问题根本，对症下药，提升内部管理水平，降低银行风险；从商业银行的角度来看，有利于商业银行整体进行参考，利用本文中使用过的德尔菲法构建自己合理的风险指标，并可运用本文中涉及到的层次分析法、模糊综合评价法等，进行自己的风险管理水平评价，并制定相应政策，对银行个体和整体，实操实践意义较为重大和深远。

Compared with other enterprises, the commercial banks’ particularity is reflected in the operation of monetary funds. At the core of financial market, the risks spread to the whole market immediately for the nature of universality and diffusiblity once there is an emergency, which has a huge negative impact on Chinese economic development.

This paper takes Xingtai Rural Commercial Bank as the main research object. Starting from the risks of commercial banks and their causes, this paper identifies the problem of weak risk prevention awareness of Xingtai RuralCommercial Bank in several aspects through questionnaires. Delphi method is used to screen risk indicators, and then uses the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weights of various risks. Applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the weight results of the analytic hierarchy process to further demonstrate the risk indicators, and draw the following conclusions:

(1) Xingtai Rural Commercial Bank should take key prevention measures on technical risk, business management risk and personnel management risk. Which personnel management risk occupies the greatest weight, the unreasonable personnel structure in the indicator layer cannot be ignored ;(2) The irrational employee structure of Xingtai Rural Commercial Bank is remarkable and significant, the shortage of personnel quality still exists ;

(3) The deficiencies in technical risk and business risk management are critical.Ultimately, suggestions are given to improve the risk management concept, optimize the risk management method, build a risk rating and supervision system and majorize the internal risk management function system. From the perspective of preventing business risk, strengthening internal control and employee management, optimizing and technical risk management and preventing，

The theories this paper brings up are valuable. From the perspective of Xingtai Rural Commercial Bank, it is beneficial for it improves their management strategies thoroughly, enhance the level of internal management and decrease the probability of risks. For the industry of commercial banks, they can take the Delphi method and hierarchy process this paper mentioned as references to build their own risk evaluation systemand related policies. The conclusions have great practical influences on the whole financial market and individual bank.