固体地球会随着地表大气、海洋和陆地水等环境质量负荷的变化而发生弹性形变。三峡水库周期性蓄放水产生的巨大水体质量变化导致三峡库区及其周边地区的地壳产生较大变形。目前，全球卫星导航定位系统GNSS可以准确地监测陆地水、大气等环境负荷变化引起的地表形变，但受站点数量的限制，并且GNSS时间序列还受到构造运动、热膨胀等因素的干扰； GRACE重力卫星为研究负荷形变提供了新的思路，它可以连续地监测全球的的质量变化，包括极地冰盖、山地冰川、地表径流和土壤水等，我们根据负荷形变理论，从而计算环境质量负荷变化引起的地表形变；此外，通过卫星测高、遥感卫星、地面监测站等技术手段，我们可以获取全球的海平面高度异常、土壤水、地表大气压等环境的变化，对引起负荷形变的各种环境变量分别构建环境负荷质量变化模型来研究负荷形变问题。因此，本文以三峡水库复杂的水文环境变化为研究背景，构建了三峡地区江河湖库水、土壤水、冰雪、植被冠层水、非潮汐大气和海洋这些环境负荷的质量变化模型，结合GNSS和GRACE-FO数据，研究了三峡地区环境负荷变化引起的地表形变，探讨了GNSS、GRACE-FO和环境质量变化模型在监测地表负荷形变上的差异，并结合地震目录数据分析了三峡水库蓄水过程与地震活动的响应关系。主要内容和成果如下：

（1）基于GRACE-FO数据计算了三峡地区的陆地水负荷垂直形变，GRACE-FO GSM和 Mascon两种数据产品计算的垂直形变空间分布和变化趋势在大部分地区总体一致，但是Mascon的计算结果空间分辨率更高，局部细节更加明显，量级也更大，因为Mascon产品更好的恢复了GSM数据处理过程中的信号衰减和泄露。

（2）利用环境质量变化模型分别计算了各种环境负荷引起的地表形变，发现不同环境负荷对三峡地区地表垂直形变的贡献为：非潮汐大气负荷>土壤水负荷>非潮汐海洋负荷>冰雪和植被冠层水负荷，而江河湖库水负荷在库区5km以内的区域大于大气负荷，在距离库区200km外的区域小于非潮汐海洋负荷。江河湖库水负荷垂直形变与水位呈负相关，最大形变区域在忠县附近，达到了23mm；三峡水库水位下降会导致库区两岸地表发生朝向库区中心的水平方向形变，水平（北向\东向）的形变在-2~2mm之间；此外对地表影响较大的大气负荷垂直形变年变化幅度在15mm左右。

（3）基于三峡地区14个GNSS站点的实测数据定量分析了GRACE-FO和质量变化模型在计算环境总负荷垂直形变上的差异，结果表明：GRACE-FO GSM+GAC、GRACE-FO Mascon+GAC、包含CPC土壤水的质量变化模型和包含GLDAS土壤水的质量变化模型这四类数据产品计算的环境总负荷垂直形变与GNSS实测结果的相关系数平均值分别为0.71、0.68、0.70和0.65，虽然GRACE-FO的结果整体精度较高，但位于库区附近的CQWZ和HBZG站，质量变化模型的计算结果与GNSS相关性更高。

（4）结合地震目录数据分析了三峡库区巴东到秭归段附近的地震活动与水库水位的时空关联性，探讨水库蓄水对库区地震活动的影响，结果发现：三峡水库诱发型地震的震中分布主要有两个地区，一是巴东断裂、高桥断裂和牛口断裂之间的区域，二是仙女山断裂和九畹溪断裂靠近库区的区域。该区域在水库蓄水前期地震震中分布分散，地震活动强度低，当2003年6月蓄水至135m期间和2006年9月蓄水至156m期间，短时间内水位的快速上升导致地震活动显著增强，但是震级普遍较低，而在2008年9月水库达到最高水位约175m后，地震活动频次有所下降，但地震强度略有增强，4级以上地震事件的频数有所增加。

The solid Earth undergoes elastic deformation in response to changes in the environmental quality loads of the surface atmosphere, oceans and land water. The huge water mass changes generated by the periodic storage and release of water from the Three Gorges Reservoir lead to large deformation of the earth's crust in the Three Gorges Reservoir area and the surrounding areas. At present, the Global Navigation and Positioning System (GNSS) can accurately monitor the surface deformation caused by changes in environmental loads such as terrestrial water and the atmosphere, but it is limited by the number of stations, and the GNSS time series are also interfered by tectonic movements, thermal expansion, and other factors; the GRACE gravity satellite provides a new way of thinking for the study of load deformation, and it can continuously monitor the quality changes in all areas of the earth, including It can continuously monitor the quality changes in all regions of the Earth, including the polar ice caps, mountain glaciers, surface runoff and soil water, etc. According to the theory of load deformation, we can calculate the surface deformation caused by the change of environmental quality load; in addition, through the technical means of satellite altimetry, remote sensing satellites, ground monitoring stations, etc., we can obtain the global changes of the environment, such as the sea level anomalies, soil water, and surface atmospheric pressure, etc., and construct an environmental load quality model to study the load deformation by modeling the load quality change of the environmental variables that cause the load deformation respectively. We can construct the environmental load quality change model to study the problem of load deformation for various environmental variables that cause load deformation. Therefore, this paper takes the complex hydrological environment change of Three Gorges Reservoir as the research background, constructs the quality change model of environmental loads of river and lake water, soil water, snow and ice, vegetation canopy water, non-tidal atmosphere and ocean in Three Gorges area, combines the GNSS and GRACE-FO data to study the surface deformation caused by the environmental load change in Three Gorges area, and discusses the advantages of GNSS, GRACE-FO and the environmental quality change model in monitoring the surface deformation. environmental quality change models in monitoring surface load deformation, and analyzed the response relationship between the storage process of the Three Gorges Reservoir and seismic activities by combining seismic catalog data. The main contents and results are as follows:

(1) Vertical deformation of land water load in the Three Gorges area was calculated based on GRACE-FO data. The spatial distribution and trend of vertical deformation calculated by GRACE-FO GSM and Mascon products are generally consistent in most areas, but the results of Mascon have higher spatial resolution, more obvious local details, and larger magnitude because the Mascon product better recovers the spatial distribution and trend of vertical deformation caused by the processing of GSM data. of recovering the signal attenuation and leakage caused by GSM data processing.

(2) The surface deformation caused by various environmental loads is calculated separately by using the environmental quality change model, and it is found that the contributions of different environmental loads to the vertical deformation of the surface in the Three Gorges area are: nontidal atmospheric load > soil water load > nontidal oceanic load > ice, snow and vegetation canopy water load, while the water load of the rivers and lakes is greater than the atmospheric load in the area within 5 km of the reservoir area, and less than the nontidal oceanic load in the area outside of the reservoir area 200 km away from the reservoir area. is smaller than the non-tidal ocean load. Vertical deformation of river and lake water load is negatively correlated with the water level, and the largest deformation area is near Zhongxian County, which reaches 23mm; the decrease of water level of Three Gorges Reservoir will lead to horizontal deformation of the land surface on both sides of the reservoir area toward the center of the reservoir area, and the horizontal (northward/eastward) deformation ranges from -2~2mm; and the vertical deformation of atmospheric load, which has a greater impact on the land surface, varies by about 15mm per year.

(3) Based on the measured data from 14 GNSS stations in the Three Gorges area, we quantitatively analyzed the differences between GRACE-FO and the mass change model in calculating the vertical deformation of the total environmental load, and the results showed that: the four types of data products, namely, the GRACE-FO GSM+GAC, the GRACE-FO Mascon+GAC, the mass change model with CPC soil water, and the mass change model with GLDAS soil water, were used to calculate the vertical deformation of the atmospheric load. The average values of the correlation coefficients between the vertical deformation of the total environmental load calculated by these four types of data products and the GNSS measured results are 0.71, 0.68, 0.70, and 0.65, respectively. Although the overall accuracy of the results from GRACE-FO is higher, the correlation of the results from the mass change model is higher for the CQWZ and HBZG stations, which are located near the reservoir area.

(4) The temporal and spatial correlation between seismicity and reservoir water level near the Badong to Zigui section of the Three Gorges Reservoir area is analyzed with the seismic catalog data to explore the impact of reservoir storage on seismicity in the reservoir area, and it is found that: the distribution of the epicenters of Three Gorges Reservoir-induced earthquakes mainly occurs in two regions, the first is the area between the Badong Fracture, the Gaoqiao Fracture, and the Niukou Fracture, and the second is the area close to the reservoir area where the Xianmuoshan Fracture and Jiuwanshi Fracture are located. The distribution of seismic epicenters in this region during the pre-storage period of the reservoir is scattered, and the intensity of seismic activity is low. When the water was stored up to 135 m in June 2003 and during the storage of water up to 156 m in September 2006, the rapid rise of the water level within a short period of time led to a significant enhancement of the seismic activity but the magnitude was generally low, and after the reservoir reached the maximum water level of about 175 m in September 2008, the seismic activity frequency declined but the The intensity of the earthquakes increased slightly, and the frequency of seismic events of magnitude 4 or higher.

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