摘 要：自2016年1月1日起我国推行全面二孩政策，少儿抚养比会显著变化，同时随着经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高，人口平均寿命逐年增高，老年抚养比也会越来越高，二者的综合作用必然导致人口年龄结构的变化，这种变化趋势的预测对政策实施效果的评估至关重要。同时，我国的住房市场经历了从城镇福利分房与配给制到市场化的过程。随着经济的发展及人们生活水平的提升，刚性和改善性住房需求都会随着人口结构的变化而变化，从而导致房价的变化。但住房是民生问题，房价应该与宏观经济层面协调且维持在一个基本稳定的水平。房价是多个因素综合作用的结果，学术界对其进行了深入的研究，但新推行的全面二孩政策所导致的人口结构变化对房价影响的研究尚处于探索阶段，在人口结构变化发生转变的时期，人口结构与住房价格间存在着何种互动机制这一问题值得深究。本文在前人研究的基础上，系统深入的探究这个问题。 首先，本文基于人口学视角，通过五省域的问卷调查，测算了全面二孩政策下育龄人口二孩生育意愿率，并基于总和生育率模型，测算了总和生育率的变化趋势；其次，借鉴学者们的研究结果，甄别房价的主要影响因素，以房价为因变量，以人口结构为自变量，以居民对房价的预期、人均地区生产总值、居民消费水平和城镇化率等为控制变量，构建面板数据模型，研究人口结构对房价的影响；最后，基于全面二孩政策下未来人口年龄结构中的少儿抚养比、老年抚养比以及诸控制变量的变化趋势，预测未来房价变动趋势及人口结构对房价变动的贡献率。通过本文研究发现：首先，全面二孩政策推迟了人口峰值来临的时间，少儿抚养比呈先上升后下降最后趋于平稳的趋势，人口总抚养比和老年抚养比呈上升趋势，陕西、湖北和山东于2030年左右，老年抚养比将超过少儿抚养比，并呈持续上升态势；其次，少儿抚养比与房价负相关，老年抚养比与房价正相关；最后，根据预测的人口结构演进趋势，本文预测就人口年龄结构而言，房价将不再具备快速上涨的条件。

Since January 1, 2016, China has implemented a comprehensive two-child policy. The child dependency ratio will change significantly. At the same time, with the development of economy and the improvement of people's living standards, the average life expectancy of the population will increase year by year, and the elderly dependency ratio will also increase. The combined effect of the two policies will inevitably lead to the change of the age structure of the population. The prediction of this change trend is very important for the evaluation of the effect of policy implementation. At the same time, China's housing market has experienced a process from urban welfare housing distribution and rationing system to market-oriented. With the development of economy and the improvement of people's living standards, the demand for rigid and improved housing will change with the change of population structure, which will lead to the change of housing prices. However, housing is a livelihood issue , housing prices should be coordinated with the macroeconomic level and maintained at a basically stable level. Housing price is the result of multiple factors, which has been deeply studied by academic circles. However, the research on the impact of population structure changes on housing price caused by the new comprehensive two-child policy is still in the exploratory stage. During the period of population structure changes, the question of what interaction mechanism exists between population structure and housing price deserves further study. On the basis of previous studies, this paper systematically and deeply explores this issue. Firstly, from the perspective of demography, this paper calculates the influencing factors and the possible fertility rate of the two-child fertility intention of the population of childbearing age under the comprehensive two-child policy through a questionnaire survey in five provinces, and calculates the change trend of the total fertility rate based on the total fertility model. Secondly, drawing lessons from the research results of scholars, the main influencing factors of house price are screened. Taking house price as dependent variable, population structure as independent variable, and residents' expectation of house price, per capita GDP, consumption level and urbanization rate as control variables, the panel data model is constructed to study the impact of population structure on house price. Finally, based on the changing trend of the child dependency ratio, the elderly dependency ratio and the control variables in the future population age structure under the comprehensive two-child policy, the future trend of house price change and the contribution rate of population structure to house price change are predicted. First, the comprehensive two-child policy delayed the arrival of the peak population, the child dependency ratio increased first, then decreased, and finally tended to be stable. The total dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio showed an upward trend. In Shaanxi, Hubei and Shandong provinces around 2030, the elderly dependency ratio will exceed the child dependency ratio and continue to rise. Secondly, the child dependency ratio is negatively correlated with housing price, while the elderly dependency ratio is positively correlated with housing price. Finally, according to the predicted evolution trend of population structure, this paper predicts that in terms of population age structure, housing prices will no longer be able to rise rapidly.