矿产资源的开采在给人类提供巨大财富的同时，也给矿山环境系统带来了一系列 地质生态环境问题，其中因地下采空而造成的地表塌陷，更给地质生态环境带来严重 的危害。为了正确地预测煤层开采引起的地面塌陷造成的环境影响，处理好资源开发 和环境保护的关系，就需要研究地面沉陷发展的机理、计算方法及其规律，通过对地 面沉陷的研究，达到评价其对环境影响的目的．本论文对地面塌陷的预测采用的是概 率积分法，该方法近几十年来成功的解决了地表移动空间问题、覆岩移动预计问题及 露天开采移动预计问题。 对于环境影响评价，虽然经过多年的实践，我国己形成了一套较为完整的环境影 响评价体系。但是，由于矿山自身的特殊性，使矿山环境影响评价工作还处于研究阶 段，还有许多需要完善的地方。近几年来我国已经出现了针对煤矿的特点，专门进行 的环境影响评价，。不过目前还不是很成熟。由于环境因子的模糊性，复杂性，本论文 对地面塌陷造成的环境影响评价采用模糊综合评价法。 由于地面塌陷评价的复杂性，对整个矿山系统评价十分困难，因此本论文以神府 矿区活鸡兔煤矿的地面塌陷为例，进行了预测分析并做了简要评价，评价的结果是该 矿区地面塌陷情况很严重，并且对环境造成了严重影响。评价结果与调查结果基本一 致 最后希望通过本论文的研究，能为矿山决策者提供参考，并起到敲响警钟的作 用。

While the great wealth to the humanity is plovided by mineral re∞IⅡ∞mining,which also blings a series of geology ecological environment questions to the mine environment system,in which underground picks the surface collapse which gives the geology ecological environment serious harlllness．In order to forecast the fall of ground creates the environmental effect caused by coal bed mining'and made the good resources development and the environmental protection relations processed correctly,so we need to study the mechanism of the ground settlement，development,the computational method and the rules, Through to the research of the ground settlem毗and achieved the goal to appraise the environmental effect．The present paper uses the probability integration to forecast the fall of ground．In the recent several dozens years,the surface migrmion space problem,cap rock migration estimate questdon and open-air mining migration estimate question骶all soluted succe豁by this mathod． Many years，adthough environmental effect apprajsal is practiced and a set of more complete environmental effect appraisal system have formed in 0111"country,But,asa result of the删cIllari_ty of our mine,the mine environmental effect appraisal work also to be al the research stage,aud also have SOme many places needed to be consummated．Now OUr coul蜘ry already appeared CAb'Ties On specially environmental effect appraisal in view ofthe coal mine characteristic,though was not very mature in recent years．As a rest]It of the fuzziness and complexity of the environment factor,the fuzzy judgment method is used for environmental effect appraisal which created by恤f酊l ofground in the present paper． As a result of the complexity of the fall of ground appraisal．it is extremely di伍cun to appraise the entire mille system．Therefore the present paper take the HuoJiTu coal mine fall of ground in ShenFu mining aIea as锄example,has carried on the forecast analysis and has made the briefappraisal，The appraisal result is the fall ofground situation in this mining脚rea is very serious,and has had the serious influence to the environment．The appraisal result is basic consistent with investigation result． ’ Finally,I hope I啪provide the圮侥∞撇for the mine policy-maker and sound the alarm bell though the present paper rehash．