随着城市经济的快速发展，商业综合体在城市化进程中充当着不可或缺的角色，它集商业零售、商务办公、餐饮等为一体，形成了一个多功能的复杂综合体。由于商业综合体规模庞大、人口密度大，一旦发生突发事件，严重威胁着商场顾客的生命和财产安全。为了提升商业综合体应急疏散过程的高效性，保障疏散人员的安全性，提高人员的疏散速度和效率尤为关键。然而，回顾已有的应急疏散研究，大多将疏散者存在着相同的生理特性开展研究，聚焦于商业综合体内外部环境、消防管理等因素对疏散者的影响。事实上，人与人之间都会存在差异性，尤其在应急状况下差异性更加明显。因此，充分考虑个体的差异性开展商业综合体应急疏散研究，对于提升城市商业综合体应急疏散水平具有重要现实意义。

本研究以商业综合体为研究对象，以行人流建模仿真为主要方法，基于风险感知异质性进行应急疏散建模。首先，通过查阅文献确定风险感知异质性的调研维度，编制商业综合体典型建筑疏散人群风险感知异质性调查问卷。根据问卷结果在Mplus分析软件的支持下，应用潜在剖面分析，以疏散人群的风险感知能力为依据对疏散者进行分类，确定最佳的风险感知潜类别数目，获得各类别疏散人群在不同观测变量上的得分。根据观测变量的得分情况分析不同人群的特征，以此定义疏散个体的风险感知属性。

其次，使用Anylogic平台结合现场实际勘察结果建立行人疏散仿真模型，通过对不考虑个体异质性的MNL模型和考虑风险感知异质性的LCM模型进行仿真模拟，并进行对比分析，总结出风险感知异质性在应急疏散过程中的影响。结果表明：考虑风险感知异质性的LCM模型疏散速度相对更快，原因在于具有生理特性的人群选择路径时会更加灵活。

最后，对疏散人员进行相应信息诱导—疏散引导，从而改变商业综合体内部系统的风险感知能力、增大疏散出口的使用效率，以期从整体上达到提高疏散效率的目的。建立基于信息诱导—疏散引导的策略模型，经仿真模拟观测其有效性。结果表明：疏散引导的加入可使各疏散通道间的空间利用率更加均衡，有效缓解人员拥挤，减少人员流动失衡，大幅提升人员疏散效率。

With the rapid development of urban economy, commercial complexes play an indispensable role in the process of urbanization. These complexes integrate commercial retail, business offices, catering, and other functions to form a multifunctional and complex facility. Due to their large scale and high population density, unexpected events can pose a serious threat to the safety of mall customers and their property. To enhance the efficiency of emergency evacuation processes in commercial complexes, ensuring the safety of evacuees and improving the speed and efficiency of evacuation are critical.

However, existing emergency evacuation research has mostly focused on the same physiological characteristics of evacuees, and on factors such as the internal and external environment of commercial complexes and fire management. In fact, there are individual differences among people, which are particularly evident in emergency situations. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to conduct emergency evacuation research on commercial complexes while fully considering individual differences.

This study takes commercial complexes as the research object and pedestrian flow modeling and simulation as the main method, based on the heterogeneity of risk perception to carry out emergency evacuation modeling. First, the research dimensions of risk perception heterogeneity were determined by consulting literature, and a risk perception heterogeneity questionnaire for typical building evacuees in commercial complexes was compiled. Based on the questionnaire results and using latent profile analysis in Mplus analysis software, evacuees were classified based on their risk perception ability, the optimal number of risk perception latent categories was determined, and the scores of evacuees in different observation variables were obtained. Different population characteristics were analyzed based on the scores of observation variables, and the risk perception attributes of evacuees were defined accordingly.

Secondly, the pedestrian evacuation simulation model was established using the Anylogic platform and the actual site survey results. The polynomial logit model without considering individual heterogeneity and the LCM model considering risk perception heterogeneity were simulated and analyzed comparatively, and the impact of risk perception heterogeneity on the emergency evacuation process was summarized. The results showed that the LCM model considering risk perception heterogeneity had a relatively faster evacuation speed, because people with physiological characteristics would choose more flexible paths when selecting routes.

Finally, corresponding information induction-evacuation guidance was given to evacuees to change the risk perception ability of the internal system of commercial complexes and increase the efficiency of the evacuation exits, to achieve the overall goal of improving evacuation efficiency. A strategy model based on information induction-evacuation guidance was established, and its effectiveness was observed through simulation. The results showed that the addition of evacuation guidance could make the spatial utilization rate of each evacuation channel more balanced, effectively alleviate crowding, reduce personnel flow imbalance, and significantly improve personnel evacuation efficiency.

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