论文中文题名: | 股票市场对我国城镇居民消费影响的实证分析 |
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学号: | 20080623 |
保密级别: | 公开 |
学科名称: | 企业管理 |
学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位年度: | 2011 |
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论文外文题名: | Urban Residents in China Stock Market Empirical Analysis of Consumption |
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论文中文摘要: |
随着我国股票市场的不断发展,股票市场与我国城镇居民的关系也越来越密切,股票财富在我国城镇居民总财富的比重也越来越大,因此,研究股票市场对消费的影响对全面认识股票市场功能、合理引导城镇居民消费、引导政府对股市的定位和调控有重要的意义。
本文主要研究股票市场对我国城镇居民消费的影响,我国股票市场对我国城镇居民消费到底有没有影响,影响的力度有多大。首先利用经济学中的消费理论进行分析,得出在理论上股票市场对消费的影响是存在的,接着从行为金融学的角度考虑股票市场对消费行为的影响,主要有行为金融学的预期理论、财富幻觉和影子财富、过度自信、时尚与从众,随后对制约股票市场影响消费的因素进行了分析,主要有证券化率、家庭股票财富规模、股票市场效率,然后从经济学的角度分析了股票市场影响消费的传导机制和特征,股票市场对消费影响的传导机制主要有财富效应、流动性效应、股市Q效应、替代效应、信心效应、货币政策效应等,通过以上理论分析得出股票市场在理论上会影响到居民消费。
接着本文运用计量经济学的方法进行实证分析。主要利用1991年2009年的年度数据运用实证的方法分析股票市场对消费的影响,主要采用的方法有单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型。在对股票市场和城镇居民消费的协整分析之后又对股票市场和我国房地产市场进行实证分析,结果表明我国股票市场和房地产市场关系密切。最后,在牛市和熊市股票市场和消费的关系分别进行了实证检验,结果表明,在我国,牛市和熊市对消费的影响是不对称的,牛市的影响大于熊市。
本文得出的主要结论:(1)股票市场对我国城镇居民消费有微弱影响,它们之间存在着一个协整关系,即它们之间是有长期稳定趋势的,股市每增加一个百分点,消费增加0.102713个百分点,当短期波动偏离长期均衡时,将以0.498613的调整力度将非均衡状态拉回到均衡状态;(2)股票市场对我国的房地产市场有一定的影响,当股票价格上涨一个百分点,房地产价格上涨0.6163845038个百分点。(3)我国股票市场对消费的影响程度在牛市和熊市是不一致的,牛市的影响程度要大于熊市,在牛市股市每上涨一个百分点,消费增加0.543642个百分点,而股市每下跌一个百分点,消费将下降0.240982个百分点。
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论文外文摘要: |
With the continuous development of China's stock market, stock market and the relationship between urban residents in China are increasingly close, the stock of wealth in total wealth of the proportion of urban residents is also growing, therefore, study the stock market effect on consumption of the overall Understanding of the stock market functions, reasonable consumption of urban residents guide to guide the positioning of the government and regulation of the stock market is significant.
This paper studies the stock market on consumption of urban residents in China, China's stock market on consumption of urban residents in the end have no effect on how powerful the effect. Firstly, the theory of economics of consumption analysis, the stock market in theory, the impact on consumption exists, then from the perspective of behavioral finance, stock market, the impact on consumer behavior, there are the expected behavioral finance theory , wealth and shadow illusion of wealth, excessive self-confidence, fashion and the herd, followed by an analysis of the impact of the factors that play the stock market wealth effect, the main rate securities, home equity wealth, size, stock market efficiency, and then from an economic point of view of the stock market of consumption and characteristics of the transmission mechanism, the stock market on consumption of the transmission mechanism are wealth effect, liquidity effect, the stock market Q effect, substitution effect, the confidence effects, monetary policy effects, etc., the above theoretical analysis in the theory of stock market affect on the consumer. Then this paper, econometric methods for empirical analysis. Mainly use the 1991 annual data for 2009 using empirical methods to analyze the impact of the stock market, piles of consumption, the main methods used by the unit root test, cointegration test, error correction model. In the stock market and consumption of urban residents Cointegration and later on the stock market and empirical analysis of the real estate market, the results show that China's stock market and real estate markets close. Finally, in bull and bear stock market and the relationship between consumption of empirical tests were performed, the results show that in our country, bull and bear market effect on consumption is asymmetric, the impact of the bull market than a bear market.
This paper draws the main conclusions: (1) stock market on consumption expenditure of urban residents have a weak influence between them there is a cointegration relationship, that between them there is a trend of long-term stability, the stock market for every one percentage point increase increased consumption of 0.102713 percent, while short-term fluctuations deviate from the long-term equilibrium, the adjustment will be 0.498613 efforts back to the non-equilibrium state of equilibrium; (2) China stock market have an impact on the real estate market, when stock prices one percentage point, real estate prices 0.6163845038 percent. (3) of the stock market effect on consumption levels in bull and bear market is inconsistent, to the extent of the bull market is greater than the bear market, every stock market in a bull market rose one percentage point increase in consumption 0.543642 percent, the stock market fell one percentage point each, consumption will decline 0.240982 percent.
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中图分类号: | F830.91 |
开放日期: | 2011-06-12 |