摘 要 我国的矿山开采中，地下开采约占矿山总面积的75%。煤的开采中地下开采占绝对优势，在煤矿中占92.5%，就是在全国所有矿山用地中也占67.3%。可见煤矿的地下开采是我国矿山开采占面积最大的类型，所以采煤塌陷区的面积较其它矿产开采引起的塌陷区大得多，对土地资源的破坏也最为严重。有人估计，我国每年因采矿地面塌陷造成的经济损失达4亿元人民币。鉴于此，本文以“清洁生产”的理念为指导，以既合理开发利用煤炭资源，又能将对环境的损害减到最小为目标，开发了“基于地质观点的煤矿区采动损害预计系统”。 要对采动损害进行有效地控制，必须首先清楚影响采动损害的因素。影响采动损害除了采矿因素外，还有地质因素。采矿因素有：采深、采厚、采煤方法及顶板管理方法、重复采动的影响、时间的影响以及开采范围的影响。而地质因素有：煤层覆岩力学性质的影响、地质构造的影响以及构造应力的影响。其中地质构造的影响中又包括断层、节理以及煤层倾角的影响。 通过对采动损害影响因素的分析及量化，可得到影响因素量化指标及采动损害特征值的计算公式。根据西安科技大学的夏玉成教授提出的起动距经验公式及最大下沉值的经验公式，得到一系列的数据点。然后通过三次样条插值法进行曲线拟合。最后利用Win Surfer 绘出下沉等值线图。 基于地质观点的煤矿区采动损害预计系统的主要功能有：通过圈定工作面，可得到预计工作所需的一系列指标值；随着工作面的推进，地表移动的变化曲线；显示地表下沉等值线图。最后以邢台东庞井田为实例论证了本系统的科学性和实用性。

Underground mining own75 percent in ore dimensions in China and the underground mining dominate coal mining. Underground mining own 92.5 in coal mining and 67.3 percent in all of the used mining fields. Then underground mining of coal mining is the largest kind of dimensions in ore mining. So the mining damages are the biggest one and mining owned more dimensions than other damages. Someone evaluate that our country almost lose 400,000,000 RMB each year. Aimed to produce clean and control the mining damages , title of the paper is “Forecast system of mining damages in mine areas based on geology” . In order to control the mining damages ,at first we must make the influence factors clearly. The factor of mining damages include mining factors and geologic factors. The mining factors include mining thick, mining depth, mining ways, re-mining, time and mining length. The geologic factors include the upper rocks stress characters, geologic tectonic and tectonic stress influences. Among the geologic influence factors there are faults and the angle of mines. This thesis synthesis the shortage of thinking about geologic ways of former specialists，and gather my instructor theory，from the geologic tectonic ways and tectonic stress ways think about the influence on the mining subsidence，And then quantify them . In using forecast formulas，the author apply the theory of Xia Yu-cheng of Xi ’ an University of Science and Technology to the amend formula of the max of subsidence and the experienced formula of moving distance. So the author used the get data to imitate subsidence plots and in the end used the software Win Surfer to show them. The forecast system of mining damages in mine areas based on geology’s main functions are : draw the research scope and get necessary data; surface subsidence plots with the mining length increase; show the picture of the surface subsidence equal-value plots. Finally the author use the example of Dong-pang mine of Xing-tai mine company to manifest the system. And the results show that the system is correct and reality.