随着老龄化不断发展，中国人口结构发生巨大转变，家庭结构发生变迁，对老年人代际支持的变动产生巨大冲击，老年家庭代际支持模式发生变化，在老龄化严重的农村尤其明显。然而目前我国养老正式支持制度与政策并不完善，因此对中国农村老年家庭代际支持动态模式展开系统研究，是促进积极老龄化及代际和谐社会，推动农村老年家庭代际和谐化的现实问题。从目前研究来看，有关中国农村老年家庭代际支持动态模式的研究尚不多见。

       本文采用2001-2018年“安徽省农村老年人生活福利状况”长期的专项追踪调查数据对农村老年人代际支持动态模式进行研究。本文基于系统工程思想，提出农村老年人代际支持动态模式，在此基础上建立农村老年人代际支持动态模式分析框架；从老年父母及成年子女两个角度对代际支持量的状况进行研究，从老年人角度研究长期代际支持变动可能性，并对影响机制进行分析。

       本文主要创新工作归纳如下：

       第一，提出了中国农村老年家庭代际支持动态模式，并建立了农村老年人代际支持动态模式分析框架。家庭中老年人与子女之间的各项代际支持的交流与联系可以视为一个系统，在大多数情况下家庭代际支持系统的不和谐是绝对的，即就是随家庭生命周期运行的家庭结构的不断变化而导致的代际支持变动是绝对的，而系统和谐则是相对的，即就是家庭结构虽然导致代际支持的变动，但其是出于家庭系统和谐发展而产生的。

       第二，基于老年人角度发现中国农村老年人代际支持量存在年龄组差异。结果表明，家庭结构变动为一直隔代直系的高龄老年人在获得经济支持方面的竞争力高于低龄及中高龄组老年人；变为三代直系家庭的中高龄老年人获得日常照料越高，变为隔代直系家庭与中高龄及高龄老年人获得日常照料呈显著正相关；变为单人家庭的低龄老年人与子女情感交流较中高龄组及高龄组老年人更密切。

       第三，基于成年子女角度对代际支持量变化状况的研究发现存在性别差异。研究发现，儿子婚姻状况与其提供/获得经济支持呈显著负相关。儿子及女儿与老年父母的居住距离与其提供经济支持呈显著正相关。子女个体受教育程度越高，其提供经济支持显著增加，女儿显著程度高于儿子。女儿婚姻状况与其获得日常照料显著负相关，儿子为正相关但不显著。

       第四，发现了中国农村老年家庭代际支持变动趋向。结果表明，一直单人家庭的老年人获得经济支持一直支持的可能性显著增加；一直单人家庭的老年人变动为一直照料的倾向性最高；变为三代直系家庭的老年人情感支持增加的可能性显著增加。进一步发现中国农村老年家庭代际支持变动可能性存在性别差异。结果表明，老年母亲在获得代际支持方面的可能性往往高于老年父亲。相对而言，家庭结构变动所带来的代际支持变动对老年父亲的影响较小。

       总之，本文揭示了中国农村家庭代际支持的动态模式，其内在逻辑在于代际之间不断调试并匹配供需，代际之间三大内容进行交换最终达到农村老年家庭整体的积极和谐发展的长期目标。

       With the continuous development of aging, China's population structure and family structure have undergone tremendous changes, which have a huge impact on the change of intergenerational support for the elderly. The intergenerational support model of the elderly family has changed, especially in the rural areas with serious aging. However, China's formal support system and policies for the elderly are not perfect at present, so a systematic study on the dynamic model of intergenerational support for elderly families in China's rural areas is a realistic problem to promote active aging and intergenerational harmonious society, and to promote the intergenerational harmony of elderly families in rural areas. From the perspective of current research, there are few studies on the dynamic model of intergenerational support for elderly families in rural China.

       This paper uses the long-term special tracking survey data of "Living and welfare status of rural elderly in Anhui Province" from 2001 to 2018 to study the dynamic model of intergenerational support for rural elderly. Based on the thought of systems engineering, this paper proposes a dynamic model of intergenerational support for the rural elderly, and establishes an analytical framework of dynamic model of intergenerational support for the rural elderly. From the perspective of elderly parents and adult children to study the status of intergenerational support, from the perspective of the elderly to study the possibility of long-term intergenerational support change, and analyze the influence mechanism.

        The main innovation work of this paper is summarized as follows:

        Firstly, the dynamic model of intergenerational support for elderly families in rural China is proposed and the framework of dynamic model analysis is established. The intergenerational support between the elderly and children in the family of the communication and connection can be regarded as a system, in most cases the family intergenerational support system of disharmony is absolute, which is run along with the family life cycle of the changing of family structure change and lead to the intergenerational support is absolute, while the system of harmonious is relative, that is, although family structure leads to the change of intergenerational support, it is generated by the harmonious development of family system.

        Secondly, from the perspective of the elderly, it is found that there are age differences in the amount of intergenerational support for the elderly in rural China. The results show that the older people whose family structure changes to be intergenerational lineal have higher competitiveness in obtaining economic support than the younger and middle aged groups. There was a significant positive correlation between the access to daily care of the middle aged and the elderly in second generation families. The emotional communication between the young elderly and their children was closer than that of the middle and old age groups.

        Thirdly, studies on the change of intergenerational support from the perspective of adult children have found gender differences. The study found a significant negative correlation between sons' marital status and financial support provided/received. The living distance between sons and daughters and their elderly parents was positively correlated with their financial support. The higher the educational level of the child, the economic support provided by the child is significantly increased, and the daughter is significantly higher than the son. The marital status of daughters is negatively correlated with their access to daily care, while that of sons is positively correlated but not significantly.

       Fourthly, we find the changing trend of intergenerational support of elderly families in rural China. The results showed that the likelihood of financial support for the elderly in single-person households was significantly increased. The elderly in single-person families have the highest tendency to take care all the time. The likelihood of increased emotional support for the elderly in third-generation lineal families was significantly increased. It is further found that there are gender differences in the possibility of changing the intergenerational support of elderly families in rural China. The results show that older mothers tend to be more likely to receive intergenerational support than older fathers. In contrast, the intergenerational support changes caused by family structure changes have less impact on older fathers.

       In conclusion, this paper reveals the dynamic model of intergenerational support for rural families in China. Its internal logic lies in the continuous adjustment and matching of supply and demand between generations, and the exchange of three major contents between generations to achieve the long-term goal of positive and harmonious development of rural elderly families as a whole.