我国农村老龄化趋势加剧，农村地区失能老年人的养老问题及健康问题日益凸显，长期照护作为解决这一群体养老需求的重要途径，对农村失能老年人的福祉产生了深远影响。目前，我国针对长期照护对农村失能老年人养老福祉的影响研究不足，本文利用“中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查数据”中2011、2014与2018三期横截面数据，采用Ordered Probit模型、多元线性回归模型等方法深入探究长期照护对农村失能老年人养老福祉的影响机制，主要研究发现如下：

      首先，建立分析框架并对农村长期照护、失能老年人健康现状等进行了描绘分析。数据表明农村失能老年人选择非正式照护人数远高于选择正式照护人数；失能老年人健康自自评、生活满意度较低，行为能力较差，抑郁水平较高，随着失能程度的加剧，老年人的生理健康和心理健康福祉呈现下降趋势。

        其次，发现了长期照护对农村失能老年人生理健康福祉的影响：非正式照护和正式照护对失能老年人健康自评有显著正向影响；非正式照护显著降低其行为能力，正式照护显著提升其行为能力，回归结果通过稳健性检验。非正式照护显著提高轻度、中度失能老年人健康自评，并提高其行为能力；正式照护显著提高轻度、重度失能老年人健康自评，提高轻度、中度失能老年人行为能力。

       再次，发现了长期照护对农村失能老年人心理健康福祉的影响：非正式照护对失能老人的生活满意度有显著的正向影响，正式照护对其生活满意度有显著的负向影响；非正式照护显著降低失能老年人的抑郁水平；正式照护显著提高其抑郁水平，回归结果通过稳健性检验。非正式照护显著提高轻度失能老年人生活满意度，降低轻度、重度失能老年人抑郁水平，而正式照护提高失能老年人抑郁水平。

       最后，发现了长期照护对农村失能老年人养老福祉的影响机制：生理健康福祉方面，社会参与在长期照护对农村失能老年人生理健康福祉影响中发挥中介作用，长期照护通过影响不同失能程度老年人的身体活动和认知活动，进而影响其健康自评和行为能力，最终影响失能老年人生理健康福祉；心理健康福祉方面，社会参与在长期照护对农村失能老年人心理健康福祉影响中发挥中介作用，长期照护通过影响不同失能程度老年人的身体活动和认知活动来影响其生活满意度和抑郁，最终影响失能老年人心理健康福祉。

      总之，本文从生理健康福祉和心理健康福祉两方面揭示了长期照护对农村失能老年人养老福祉的影响机制，为积极应对老年失能群体扩大带来的负向效应，推动我国农村养老服务体系的完善和构建社会和谐养老环境具有重要的理论和现实意义。通过优化长期照护服务，合理高效利用农村养老资源，激发老龄社会参与活力，实现“老有所养”“老有所依”，这对于为农村失能老年人创造一个更加健康、尊严和幸福的晚年生活，提高失能老年人健康养老福祉，进一步促进社会公平和谐有一定的现实意义。

          The aging trend in China's rural areas is intensifying, and the pension and health problems of the disabled elderly in rural areas are becoming increasingly prominent. Long-term care, as an important way to solve the pension needs of this group, has a far-reaching impact on the well-being of the disabled elderly in rural areas. At present, there is insufficient research on the impact of long-term care on the well-being of the disabled elderly in rural areas in China. Based on the survey data of " Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey" 2011, 2014 and 2018 cross-section data，this study uses Ordered Probit model, multiple linear regression and other methods to explore the impact mechanism of long-term care on the well-being of rural disabled elderly. The main findings are as follows:

        First of all, the analysis framework is established and the health status of rural long-term care and disabled elderly is described and analyzed. The data show that the number of rural disabled elderly who choose informal care is much higher than the number of those who choose formal care. The disabled elderly has lower self-rated health and life satisfaction, poorer behavioral ability and higher level of depression. With the aggravation of disability, the physical health and mental health well-being of the elderly show a downward trend.

          Secondly, it is explored that the the impact of long-term care on the physical health and well-being of rural disabled elderly: Informal care and formal care have a significant positive impact on the self-rated health of the disabled elderly; informal care significantly reduces their behavioral ability, while formal care significantly improves their behavioral ability, and the regression results pass the robustness test. Informal care significantly improved the self-rated health of the elderly with mild and moderate disability, and improved their behavioral ability. Formal care significantly improved the self-rated health of the elderly with mild and severe disability, and improved their behavioral ability.

         Thirdly, it is explored that the impact of long-term care on the mental health and well-being of rural disabled elderly: Informal care has a significant positive impact on the life satisfaction of the disabled elderly, while formal care has a significant negative impact on their life satisfaction; informal care significantly reduces the depression level of the disabled elders, formal care significantly improves their depression level, and the regression results pass the robustness test. Informal care significantly improved the life satisfaction of the elderly with mild disability, and reduced the depression level of the elderly with mild and severe disability, while formal care improved the depression level of the disabled elderly.

          Finally, it is explored that the impact mechanism of long-term care on the well-being of the disabled elderly in rural areas: For physical health and well-being, social participation plays a mediating role in the impact of long-term care on the physical health and well-being of the disabled elderly in rural areas. Long-term care affects the physical and cognitive activities of the disabled elderly with different degrees of disability, and then affects their self-assessment of health and behavioral ability, and ultimately affects the physical health and well-being of disabled elderly. For mental health and well-being, social participation plays a mediating role in the impact of long-term care on the mental health and well-being of the disabled elderly in rural areas. Long-term care affects the physical and cognitive activities of the disabled elderly in different degrees, and then affects their life satisfaction and depression, and ultimately affects the mental health and well-being of disabled elderly.

          In conclusion, this study reveals the impact mechanism of long-term care on the well-being of the disabled elderly in rural areas from two aspects of physical health well-being and mental health well-being, which has important theoretical and practical significance for actively coping with the negative effects brought by the expansion of the disabled elderly group, promoting the improvement of the rural old-age service system in China and building a harmonious social environment for the elderly.By optimizing long-term care services, making rational and efficient use of rural old-age resources, stimulating the vitality of social participation of the elderly, and realizing "care for the elderly" and "support for the elderly", it has certain practical significance for creating a more healthy, dignified and happy old age life for the disabled elderly in rural areas, improving the well-being of the disabled elderly, and further promoting social equity and harmony.

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