在全球气候变化和土地利用变化的背景下，生态脆弱区如何应对干扰胁迫并缓解 压力，实现绿色高质量发展成为重要课题，而生态韧性在评估区域防范化解生态风险 的能力方面有一定优势。目前针对城市韧性的研究较多，而对流域生态韧性的研究较 少，但流域作为区域生态发展的重要载体，其生态保护与治理情况直接影响到区域绿 色高质量发展。本研究从景观生态韧性时空特征的角度，揭示了泾河流域生态韧性的 时空特征。选取研究区2000年、2010年和2020年的土地利用数据，采用PLUS（Patchgenerating Land Use Simulation）模型模拟泾河流域 2030 年生态发展、自然发展和城市 发展 3 种情景下的土地利用数据，结合不同未来碳排放水平的气候情景数据，通过 SWAT （Soil and Water Assessment Tool） 模型、 CASA （Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach）模型和 InVEST（Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs）模 型，预测流域的未来生态系统服务。并考虑景观格局特征，分析未来多情景下泾河流 域生态韧性。主要结论如下：

（1）2000 年-2020 年，泾河流域各子流域生态韧性均持续上升。与 2000 年的状况 相比，2020 年所有子流域都超过了低韧性水平，泾河流域 44.55%的面积由低韧性等级 转出，12.59%的面积转换成高韧性等级。生态韧性提升是以六盘山和子午岭林区为生 态韧性热点区域向整个流域辐射。流域南部虽然保持着较高的生态系统服务，但因建 筑用地扩张以及不合理的景观结构，呈低生态稳定性。

（2）2000 年-2020 年，泾河流域生态系统服务整体提升。随着退耕还林工程的持 续推进，泾河流域生态系统服务得到明显改善，在流域西部六盘山和东部子午岭林区， 产水服务与固碳服务、土壤保持服务的相关性上升，与生境质量的相关性下降。表明 泾河流域产水服务、土壤保持服务和固碳服务为协同作用，与生境质量呈权衡关系。

（3）预测 2030 年泾河流域的生态韧性水平在 9 种不同情景下表现各不相同。其 中，未来“城市发展-SSP245”情景下泾河流域具有较好的生态韧性，表现为低韧性区 减少、高韧性区增加，若与 2020 年的生态韧性水平相比整体上升了 0.37%。

Under the background of global climate change and land use change, how ecologically fragile areas can cope with disturbance and stress to achieve green and high-quality development has become an important issue. Ecological resilience has certain advantages in assessing the ability of regions to prevent and resolve ecological risks. At present, there are many studies on urban resilience, but there are few studies on the ecological resilience of river basins, but as an important carrier of regional ecological development, the ecological protection and governance of river basins directly affect regional green and high-quality development. This study reveals the spatiotemporal characteristics of ecological resilience in the Jing River Basin from the perspective of the spatiotemporal characteristics of landscape ecological resilience. The land used data of the study area in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were selected to simulate the land use data under three scenarios of ecological development, natural development and urban development in the Jing River Basin in 2030 by using the PLUS (Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model, combined with the climate scenario data of different future carbon emission levels, using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model, CASA (CarnegieAmes-Stanford Approach) model and InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model, predict future ecosystem services in the watershed. Considering the characteristics of landscape pattern, the ecological resilience of the Jing River Basin in the future multi-scenario was analyzed. The main conclusions were as follows:

(1) From 2000 to 2020, the ecological resilience of all sub-basins in the Jing River Basin continued to increase. Compared with the situation in 2000, all sub-basins exceeded the low resilience level in 2020, and 44.55% of the area of the Jing River Basin was transferred from the low resilience level, and 12.59% of the area was converted to the high resilience level. The improvement of ecological resilience is based on the ecological resilience hot-spots of Liupan Mountain and Meridian Ridge forest areas, radiating to the entire river basin. Although the 2 southern part of the basin maintains high ecosystem services, it has low ecological stability due to the expansion of building land and unreasonable landscape structure.

(2) From 2000 to 2020, the ecosystem services in the Jing River Basin were improved as a whole. With the continuous advancement of the project of returning farmland to forest, the ecosystem services of the Jing River Basin have been significantly improved, and the correlation of water yield between carbon sequestration services and soil conservation services has increased in the Liupan Mountain and the eastern Meridian Ridge forest area, but the correlation with habitat quality has decreased. The results show that water production services are synergistic with soil conservation services and carbon sequestration services in the Jing River Basin and have a trade-off relationship with habitat quality.

(3) The predicted ecological resilience level of the Jing River Basin in 2030 will be different under nine different scenarios. Among them, the Jing River Basin under the future "Urban Development-SSP245" scenario has good ecological resilience, which is manifested in the decrease of low resilience areas and the increase of high resilience areas, which increases by 0.37% overall compared with the ecological resilience level in 2020.