论文中文题名: | 基于前景理论的建筑施工多主体安全行为演化博弈研究 |
姓名: | |
学号: | 19220089010 |
保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | chi |
学科代码: | 083700 |
学科名称: | 工学 - 安全科学与工程 |
学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位级别: | 工学硕士 |
学位年度: | 2022 |
培养单位: | 西安科技大学 |
院系: | |
专业: | |
研究方向: | 安全管理与安全系统工程 |
第一导师姓名: | |
第一导师单位: | |
第二导师姓名: | |
论文提交日期: | 2022-06-18 |
论文答辩日期: | 2022-06-01 |
论文外文题名: | Study on evolutionary game of multi-agent safety behavior in building construction based on prospect theory |
论文中文关键词: | |
论文外文关键词: | building construction ; evolutionary game theory ; multi-agent ; prospect theory ; mental accounting |
论文中文摘要: |
近年来,我国房屋建筑施工领域生产安全事故居高不下,安全生产形势依然严峻,造成了重大的人员伤亡和经济损失。建筑施工是一个复杂的系统工程,通常涉及多方参与者。在雇佣关系下,由于信息不对称和利益诉求不同,使得各主体的行为决策受成本和行为效价的影响而呈现博弈关系,导致其安全管理无法高效实施。因此研究各主体的行为决策,有利于探索在信息不对称情况下,各方利益主体策略选择的交互关系和动态演化过程,同时对促进建筑施工领域长远发展具有重要现实意义。 首先系统分析355起房屋市政工程生产安全事故调查报告,结合多主体理论对导致生产安全事故的责任主体进行识别,统计各主体行为失误引起事故的频次,计算得出由建设单位、监理单位、总包单位、分包单位及建筑工人群体行为失误引起事故占比分别为36.3%、30.2%、41.5%、48.7%、73.6%,并对各主体的行为特征及交互关系进行分析。其次,充分考虑影响主体行为决策的风险偏好和感知价值等因素,基于前景理论和心理账户理论,构建了建筑施工多主体安全行为演化博弈模型,建立感知收益矩阵代替传统支付矩阵,通过求解复制动态方程研究多主体行为决策选择间的关联性。然后,应用MATLAB算法对动态演化过程和达到最佳策略状态的客观条件进行仿真,验证单因素和双因素耦合作用对各主体行为决策演化趋势的影响机制。最后,通过从各个影响因素中考察系统的动态演变趋势,分析各主体不安全行为的成因,分别从不同主体的角度提出对策和建议,以期能够从管理、技术两个层面降低建筑施工生产安全事故的发生概率,从而提高建筑施工领域安全管理水平。 |
论文外文摘要: |
In recent years, production and safety accidents in the field of building construction in China have remained high, and the situation of safety production is still severe, resulting in significant casualties and economic losses. Building construction is a complex system project, usually involving multiple participants. Under the employment relationship, the asymmetry of information and different interests make the behavioral decisions of each subject may be influenced by costs and behavioral effectiveness and present a game relationship, resulting in the inefficient implementation of its safety management. The study of the behavioral decisions of each subject is therefore conducive to exploring the interaction mechanisms and dynamic evolution of the strategic choices of the various stakeholders in the context of information asymmetry, and is also important and necessary for the long-term development of the building construction sector. This paper firstly 355 investigation reports of production safety accidents in housing and municipal engineering has analyzed, and identifies the subjects causing the production safety accidents by combining the theory of multiple subjects. The frequency of accidents caused by the behavioral errors of each subject is counted, and the percentage of accidents caused by the behavioral errors of construction units, supervision units, general contracting units, subcontracting units and groups of construction workers is calculated to be 36.3%, 30.2%, 41.5%, 48.7% and 73.6% respectively, and the behavioral characteristics and interactive relationships of the participants are analyzed. Secondly, factors such as risk preferences and perceived values that affect the behavioral decisions of subjects are fully considered. Based on prospect theory and psychological account theory, a game model for the evolution of the safety behavioral of multiple subjects in building construction is constructed respectively, a perceived benefit matrix is established instead of the traditional payment matrix, and the correlation between the behavioral strategy choices of multiple subjects is studied by solving replicated dynamic equations. Then, MATLAB algorithms are applied to simulate the evolutionary process and the objective conditions for reaching the optimal strategy state to verify the mechanisms of single and two-factor coupling effects on the evolutionary trend of each subject's behavioral decisions. Finally, by analyzing the evolutionary trend of the system and the influencing factors, the motives of each participant's unsafe behavioral are analyzed, and countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the perspectives of different subjects respectively, with a view to reducing the probability of construction production safety accidents from the management and technical levels. The aim is to improve safety control in the construction industry. |
中图分类号: | TU714 |
开放日期: | 2022-06-20 |