瓦斯涌出是影响煤矿安全生产的重要因素。加强瓦斯涌出量预测方法研究，对改善我国煤矿安全生产状况具有积极的意义。论文选择瓦斯涌出量预测方法为研究课题。论文采用Monte Carlo方法、概率统计为工具探索瓦涌出量预测新方法。 论文中首先介绍了瓦斯涌出量预测的意义和国内主要研究现状；接着介绍了瓦斯的基本概念和产生，分析了影响瓦斯涌出量的几种因素，介绍现有的几种瓦斯涌出量预测方法，并简单分析了每种方法的局限性。论文在简单介绍Monte Carlo方法的基本原理后，提出了Monte Carlo和概率统计的瓦斯涌出量预测方法。在此基础上，分析了瓦斯涌出的各种指标，确定了瓦斯涌出的不确定性指标，根据实际收集的瓦斯涌出的数据进行分析和预测。

The gas emission is an important influence to the coalmine safety situation. So to improve the study on the prediction method of the amount of gas emission is of great significance to enhance the coalmine safety situation in China. In the paper, the study is focused on the new techniques of the Monte Carlo simulation, Probability and Statistics. First the significance and the ongoing study of the prediction in China will be presented. Second is how the gas is defined and produced, and the elements deciding its emission amount and the existent prediction methods. The third is how the emission amount is foreknown under the Monte Carlo simulation and Probability and Statistics. The data management of Gas and prediction system will be discussed. Based on the relevant study and define all kind of index sign that gush of gas, the data that gush according to the actual collections proceeds analysis and prediction.