煤炭开采导致的地表沉陷对矿区生态环境和人民的生产生活带来了不同程度的影响，给矿区造成严重的经济损失，严重制约着矿区的可持续发展。为了减少由于开采沉陷引起的损失，需要在工作面开采前对开采后将会出现的沉陷状况有一个正确的预计，以便调整开采方案或采取适当的措施降低损失。因此，地表沉陷预计具有重要的理论和现实意义。 在研究地表沉陷预计理论的基础上，针对目前地表沉陷预计系统存在的问题和不足，以概率积分法为预计模型，讨论并实现了煤层倾角自动计算、任意形状工作面分割、计算范围格网化、工作面反演和录入输出可视化功能，为实现本系统提供了技术支持。在系统设计和开发过程中，以面向对象开发方法为指导，分别进行了总体设计和详细设计，并利用Access数据库管理系统建立了地表沉陷预计数据库。 系统通过工作面分割技术实现了任意形状工作面的地表沉陷预计；在研究煤矿开采的基础上，利用计算机实现了工作面计算参数的自动计算和存储；利用CGIS平台开发了独立的数据可视化录入模块，实现了数据的可视化录入；通过研究Surfer软件的Automation技术，实现了地表沉陷预计结果的可视化输出，可输出等值线图、矢量图和表面图三种图形；利用地表沉陷预计结果实现了工作面反演，可辅助工作面设计；使用数据库作为数据交换平台，实现了多个子系统间数据传递的无缝连接。 文中论述了系统的组成及功能，详细地介绍了该系统的设计方案、变形计算模型、关键技术的算法实现及数据可视化录入输出的实现方法，最后给出了一个应用实例。应用实例表明，该系统的预测计算准确可靠，软件操作简单，系统功能达到了设计要求。

Surface subsidence caused by coal mining has impact on the ecological environment and production and life of the people in mining areas. It also causes serious economic losses and seriously restricts the sustainable development of mining areas. Having a correct subsidence forecast before mining can reduce losses caused by mining subsidence and adjust the mining plan or reduce losses by taking appropriate measures. So forecast of the earth’s surface has a great theoretical and practical significance. On studying the theory of surface subsidence and problems and deficiencies in existing systems and based on the modal of probability integration method, this essay discusses and implements auto computing angle of coal，division arbitrary sharp work face, grid forecast region, inversion work face and visualization of input and output. This studying provides technical support for the system. During design and development process, taking object-oriented development methodology as the guide, the overall and detailed design was carried out and surface subsidence database was established using Access. The system can forecast arbitrary shape work face by using work face division method, auto calculate and save forecast parameters of work face based on mining, develop an independent module of input visualization by using CGIS platform, achieve result of calculating visualization by studying the Automation technology of Surfer. It can auto draw contour, vectorgraph, face map. The inversion work face can aid work face design by using result of subsidence forecast. Achieve a number of data transmissions between subsystems seamlessly by using the database as a data exchange. This essay describes the components and functions of the system and gives a detail instruction about design, module of forecast, implements of key technologies algorithm and method of input and output, and gives an example of application at last. The example shows that it is easy to operate, high-precision results of forecast is the feature of the system. The system functions meet the design requirements.