随着煤矿井下生产推进，井下作业环境逐渐复杂，新风险不断出现并始终处于动态变化之中，使煤矿发生瓦斯爆炸事故发生概率增加，严重威胁工人生命安全与煤矿行业健康持续、高质量发展。因此，通过研究基于累积效应的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险演化过程，不仅为掌握瓦斯爆炸风险演化过程提供理论基础，也对促进企业风险控制水平提升具有现实意义。

本文以煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险为研究对象，引入累积效应对煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险的演化过程进行研究。首先，依据风险识别原则，对近十年的煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故案例进行统计分析，采用扎根理论对煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险因素进行提取与分类，为后续研究提供基础。其次，界定了风险累积概念与风险演化概念，探究了风险累积原理，依据生态累积效应分析框架提出了风险累积框架，分析得到煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险累积过程的累积源、累积途径、累积方式及累积影响；采用改进的扎根理论依次分析管理风险因素和人、物、环风险因素产生的累积效应，综合分析得到煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险累积效应对风险演化的影响；从风险发展过程与所包含的特殊过程两个角度出发，划分出煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险演化阶段，建立煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险演化模型；结合系统动力学，分别建立人、物、环、管四个子系统和瓦斯爆炸风险演化总系统，探究每个系统中瓦斯爆炸风险因素间关系，绘制煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险因果关系图、流图。

最后，结合具体实例分析，依据现有实际资料、现有研究及专家打分确定相关风险参数值，确定系统动力学方程，构建基于累积效应的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险演化系统动力学模型；运用Vensim软件对每个系统的风险演化过程进行仿真，观察煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险演化趋势，得到煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险控制关键点，并提出相应风险控制措施。

With the advancement of coal mine production, the underground working environment is becoming more and more complex, and new risks are constantly emerging and always in dynamic change. The probability of gas explosion accidents in coal mines increases, which seriously threatens the safety of workers and the healthy, sustainable and high-quality development of coal industry. Therefore, by studying the evolution process of coal mine gas explosion risk based on cumulative effect, it not only provides theoretical basis for mastering the evolution process of gas explosion risk, but also has practical significance for promoting the improvement of enterprise risk management level.

This paper takes the risk of coal mine gas explosion as the research object, and introduces the cumulative effect to study the evolution process of coal mine gas explosion risk. Firstly, according to the principle of risk identification, the cases of coal mine gas explosion accidents in the past ten years are statistically analyzed, and the grounded theory is used to extract and classify the risk factors of coal mine gas explosion, which provides the basis for subsequent research. Secondly, the concept of risk accumulation and risk evolution are defined, and the principle of risk accumulation is explored. Based on the ecological accumulation effect analysis framework, the risk accumulation analysis framework is proposed, and the accumulation source, accumulation way, accumulation mode and accumulation influence of the risk accumulation process of coal mine gas explosion are analyzed. The improved grounded theory is used to analyze the cumulative effect of management risk factors and human, material and environmental risk factors in turn, and the influence of cumulative effect of coal mine gas explosion risk on risk evolution is obtained through comprehensive analysis. From the perspective of risk development process and the special process included, the risk evolution stage of coal mine gas explosion is divided, and the risk evolution model of coal mine gas explosion is established. Combined with system dynamics, the four subsystems of people, objects, rings and pipes and the general system of gas explosion risk evolution are established respectively. The relationship between gas explosion risk factors in each system is explored, and the causality diagram and flow diagram of coal mine gas explosion risk are drawn.

Finally, combined with the analysis of specific examples, according to the existing actual data, existing research and expert scoring to determine the relevant risk parameter values, determine the system dynamics equation, build the coal mine gas explosion risk evolution system dynamics model based on cumulative effect ; the risk evolution process of each system is simulated by Vensim software, and the risk evolution trend of coal mine gas explosion is observed. The key points of coal mine gas explosion risk management are obtained, and the corresponding risk management measures are put forward.

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