险兆事件是潜在事故发生的重要标志，注重事故前险兆事件的识别和管理研究，是实现事故防控“关口前移”，提高安全保障可靠性的重要途径，符合安全管理发展的新趋势。本文以煤矿水害险兆事件为研究对象，综合运用事故致因理论、文献研究、扎根理论、问卷调查、TOPSIS等理论与方法，重点围绕煤矿水害险兆事件形成机理和管理有效性评价等方面进行研究，以期为煤矿水害险兆事件科学管理和矿井水灾预防提供依据。论文主要工作及取得的研究成果如下： （1）应用扎根理论方法对煤矿水害险兆事件的影响因素进行了探索性研究，发展出了煤矿水害险兆事件的关键影响因素模型。煤矿水害险兆事件影响因素包括管理因素、环境因素、设备设施和员工行为4个主范畴，防治水管理制度、安全教育培训、安全监督检查、水害应急演练、作业环境、水文地质环境、排水设备能力、排水设备运行与维护、防水设施、违章行为和冒险行为11个副范畴。 （2）利用实证分析验证了各影响因素与煤矿水害险兆事件形成的关系。结果显示：防治水管理制度、安全监督检查、作业环境、水文地质环境、防水设施、排水设备运行与维护、排水设备能力、安全行为对煤矿水害险兆事件的形成具有显著影响；安全行为在安全教育培训、水害应急演练两个变量与煤矿水害险兆事件的关系中发挥了完全中介作用；在防治水管理制度、安全监督检查和作业环境三个变量与煤矿水害险兆事件的关系中发挥了部分中介作用。 （3）构建了煤矿水害险兆事件管理有效性评价指标体系。包括员工效能、管理理念、组织效率和管理氛围4个一级指标，12个二级指标和21个三级指标；提出了一种改进的三角可调模糊数计算方法，确定了评价指标权重，4个一级指标按权重值由大到小依次为：员工效能>组织效率>管理氛围>管理理念；并基于改进的TOPSIS法构建了煤矿水害险兆事件管理有效性评价模型。 （4）在G煤矿进行了水害险兆事件管理有效性评价实证分析。结果显示：G煤矿水害险兆事件管理有效性整体相对接近度为0.4379，处于稍差水平；一级指标中员工效能和管理理念指标的相对接近度分别为0.448和0.3851，处于稍差水平；组织效率和管理氛围的相对接近度分别为0.5212和0.5457，处于一般水平。评价结果与G煤矿水害险兆事件管理情况基本吻合，说明建立的煤矿水害险兆事件管理有效性评价体系具有较好的实用价值。 本文的研究丰富和扩展了煤矿险兆事件管理的范畴和理论体系，明确了煤矿水害险兆事件形成机理，实现了煤矿水害险兆事件管理有效性评价，对煤矿水害险兆事件的管理工作起到了推动作用，有利于促进煤矿安全管理水平的进一步提升。

Near-miss is the important symbol before the potential accident occurred. Above all, it is an important way to achieve the objection of Prevention Beforehand and improve the safety guarantee by laying emphasis on recognizing, administrating and researching the Near-misses before accidents. It’s in line with the new developing trends of safety management. Therefore, this dissertation took the coal mine water disaster Near-miss as the research object and mainly studied the formation mechanism and management efficiency evaluation of coal mine water disaster Near-miss by using the Accident Causation Theory, Literature researches, Grounded Theory Analysis, Surveys and TOPSIS etc. The dissertation offered theoretical foundation to the scientific management of coal mine water disaster Near-miss and safety decision-making of the coal mine water disaster prevention. The primary works and conclusion are as follows: (1) The influence factors of coal mine water disaster Near-miss were identified based on grounded theory analysis approach, and the theoretical analysis framework was built. It includes management factors, environmental factors, equipment＆facilities and employee behavior 4 main categories, and water disaster prevention-control management system, safety education and training, safety supervision and inspection, water disaster emergency drills, working environment, hydrological and geological environment, drain equipment capacity, drain equipment operation and maintenance, waterproof facilities and violating behavior and risky behavior11 Vice categories. (2) The formation mechanism model of coal mine water disaster Near-miss was built and tested. The results showed: there were significant effect of the prevention and control water management, safety supervision and inspection, working environment, hydrological and geological environment, waterproof facilities, drain equipment operation and maintenance, drain equipment capacity and safety behavior to coal mine water disaster Near-miss. The safety behavior was the complete mediator between safety education training, water disasters emergency drills to coal mine water disaster Near-miss. As well as, the part mediator between the water disaster prevention-control management system, safety supervision and inspection, working environment to coal mine water disaster Near-miss. (3) The management efficiency evaluation index system of coal mine water disaster Near-miss was built, including employee efficacy, management idea, organization efficiency and management atmosphere 4 first grade indexes, 12 second grade indexes and 21 third grade indexes. The weight of each evaluation indexes was given using the improved triangle adjustable fuzzy number method. According to its weight from big to small, 4 first grade indexes are as follows: employee efficacy, organization efficiency, management atmosphere, management idea. The coal mine water disaster Near-miss management efficiency evaluation model was constructed by using improved TOPSIS. (4) An empirical analysis was carried out in G coal mine. The results showed that: the relative approach degree of G coal mine water disaster Near-miss management performance was 0.4379, at a slightly worse level. The relative approach degrees of employee efficacy and management idea in the first grade indexes respectively were 0.448 and 0.3851, at a slightly worse level too. The relative approach degrees of organization efficiency and management atmosphere respectively were 0.5212 and 0.5457, at a general level. The evaluation result basically tallies with the condition of coal mine water disaster Near-miss management. It illustrates the management efficiency evaluation system of coal mine water disaster Near-miss has good practical value. The above research results enrich and extend the study category and theory system on coal mine Near-miss. This research provide a clear direction for formation mechanism and management efficiency evaluation of coal mine water disaster Near-miss, promoted its management and other aspects of the work, and to further improve the coal-mine safety management level.