在全球气候变暖的背景下，寻求碳排放时空演变的影响因素不仅是中国实现节能减排目标的重要途径，同时也是倒逼经济发展方式转变的关键依据。论文基于能源平衡表法，从自上而下的角度测算出中国“一带一路”沿线140个城市2008-2018年的碳排放，进而构建邻接、地理和经济距离空间权重矩阵，并从时序和空间两个方面分析中国“一带一路”沿线城市碳排放的时空演变特征。接着在分析碳排放的空间相关性的基础上，对中国“一带一路”沿线城市采用空间杜宾模型进行碳排放时空演变的影响因素实证分析，并对中国“一带一路”沿线城市根据地理划分为西北地区、东北地区、西南及内陆地区、东部沿海地区共四大地区，对不同地区的碳排放时空演变的影响因素实证分析，进而为碳减排提出建议。

通过理论研究和实证分析，主要得出以下结论：（1）时序演变特征中，中国“一带一路”沿线城市碳排放整体呈现波动上升的态势且趋势明显；空间演变特征中，在邻接、地理和经济距离这三个空间权重矩阵下，中国“一带一路”沿线城市在研究时期内碳排放的空间正相关特征高度显著，碳排放空间集聚性稍有减弱，基本上呈现出北高南低的特征，但低范围内的城市持续增多。（2）人均GDP、年末常住人口数和外商直接投资对城市碳排放存在显著的促进作用，城镇居民人均可支配收入对城市碳排放有抑制作用。人均GDP、年末常住人口数、第二产业产业值所占GDP总量、城镇居民人均可支配收入对周边城市碳排放存在显著的空间溢出效应。（3）对于西北地区，人均GDP、年末常住人口数、第二产业产业值所占GDP总量和外商直接投资对城市碳排放存在显著的促进作用，城镇居民人均可支配收入对城市碳排放有抑制作用，人均GDP、年末常住人口数和城镇居民人均可支配收入对周边城市碳排放存在显著的空间溢出效应；对于东北地区，人均GDP、年末常住人口数和第二产业产业值所占GDP总量对城市碳排放存在显著的促进作用，外商直接投资对城市碳排放存在显著的抑制作用；对于西南及内陆地区，人均GDP、年末常住人口数、第二产业产业值所占GDP总量和外商直接投资对城市碳排放存在显著的促进作用，城镇居民人均可支配收入对城市碳排放有抑制作用；对于东部沿海地区，人均GDP、年末常住人口数和外商直接投资对城市碳排放存在显著的促进作用，城镇居民人均可支配收入对城市碳排放有抑制作用，人均GDP和第二产业产业值所占GDP总量对周边城市碳排放存在显著的促进作用。

In the context of global warming, seeking the factors that influence the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions is not only an important way for China to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction goals, but also a key basis for forcing the transformation of economic development patterns. Based on the energy balance method, the paper calculates the carbon emissions of 140 cities along China’s “the Belt and Road” from a top-down perspective from 2008 to 2018, and then constructs a spatial weight matrix of adjacency, geographic and economic distance, and from time series and space Two aspects analyze the characteristics of the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions in cities along China’s “the Belt and Road”. Then, on the basis of analyzing the spatial correlation of carbon emissions, the spatial Dubin model is used to carry out an empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions in the cities along China’s “the Belt and Road”, and the cities along China’s “the Belt and Road” are divided into There are four major regions in Northwest China, Northeast China, Southwest and inland areas, and eastern coastal areas. Empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon emissions in different regions has been conducted, and recommendations for carbon emission reductions are made.

Through theoretical research and empirical analysis, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) In the characteristics of time series evolution, the overall carbon emissions of cities along China’s “the Belt and Road” show a trend of rising volatility and a clear trend; in the characteristics of spatial evolution, under the three spatial weight matrices of adjacency, geographic and economic distance, China’s “the Belt and Road” During the study period, the spatial positive correlation characteristics of carbon emissions in cities were highly significant, and the spatial agglomeration of carbon emissions was slightly weakened, basically showing the characteristics of high north and low south, but the number of cities in the low range continued to increase. (2) Per capita GDP, the number of permanent residents at the end of the year, and foreign direct investment have a significant promotion effect on urban carbon emissions, and the per capita disposable income of urban residents has an inhibitory effect on urban carbon emissions. Per capita GDP, the number of permanent residents at the end of the year, the total GDP of the secondary industry, and the per capita disposable income of urban residents have significant spatial spillover effects on the carbon emissions of surrounding cities. (3) For the Northwest region, per capita GDP, the number of permanent residents at the end of the year, the total GDP of the secondary industry and foreign direct investment have a significant promotion effect on urban carbon emissions, and the per capita disposable income of urban residents has a depressing effect on urban carbon emissions. Per capita GDP, the number of permanent residents at the end of the year, and the per capita disposable income of urban residents have significant spatial spillover effects on the carbon emissions of surrounding cities; for the Northeast, the per capita GDP, the number of permanent residents at the end of the year, and the total GDP of the secondary industry have an impact on the city Carbon emissions have a significant role in promoting carbon emissions, and foreign direct investment has a significant inhibitory effect on urban carbon emissions; for the southwest and inland regions, per capita GDP, year-end permanent population, secondary industry industry value as a share of total GDP and foreign direct investment It has a significant role in promoting urban carbon emissions. The per capita disposable income of urban residents has a depressing effect on urban carbon emissions; for the eastern coastal areas, per capita GDP, the number of permanent residents at the end of the year, and foreign direct investment have a significant role in promoting urban carbon emissions. The per capita disposable income of urban residents has an inhibitory effect on urban carbon emissions, and the per capita GDP and the total GDP of the secondary industry industry value have a significant role in promoting carbon emissions in surrounding cities.

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