黄河三角洲位于中国东部沿海重要的经济发展地区，具有独特的形成背景和沉积环境。长期以来，区域地下水过度开采引起地下水位下降，导致土体失水压缩引发广泛而复杂的地面沉降和次生灾害，对当地经济、环境以及社会发展造成严重影响。然而，目前针对该区域地下水变化导致的沉降灾害问题，仍缺乏深入系统的研究。为此，本文以黄河三角洲地区为研究区域，运用时序InSAR（Inerferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar）技术获取地面形变的时空分布特征，基于实测资料利用GMS（Groundwater Modeling System）-SUB模块构建地下水流场与地面沉降的耦合模型，分析和揭示地下水变化引起的地面沉降动态演化规律。论文研究的主要内容及结果如下：

利用时序InSAR技术对黄河三角洲地表形变进行2018-2022年长时间序列的监测，获取了该地区地面沉降总体变化特征、典型区域形变时空分布与演化特征。结果得到：该地区地面沉降灾害普遍存在，在空间上分布不均匀、在沉降量级上差异较大；河口区和垦利区的东北部的胜利油田开采区附近、孤北水库西南、东北侧的相干点沉降速率较大，其中沉降速率最大的相干点位于胜利油田开采区西侧2km、仙河镇东侧9km处，沉降速率为389.8mm/y，地面沉降主要归因于油田过度开采油气储层压力释放后储层内部压力的减小以及地下岩层压实；东营区东部地区、广饶县东北部地区、寿光市北部地区、寒亭区北部地区及昌邑市北部地区内的地面沉降则归因于地下水开采引起的含水层和上覆岩层压缩。

基于研究区典型钻孔取样试验数据和地下水位监测数据，结合有限差分法，利用GMS软件构建了水文地质概念模型，包括5个分层及10个分区，重点模拟2个承压含水层；其次，基于水文地质概念模型构建数学模型并进行求解；最后，基于数学模型建立数值模型，即将数学模型离散化。考虑粘土夹层排水和压缩的时间滞后，根据实测数据调整模型参数，构建了适合研究区的耦合沉降模型，模型模拟结果与监测数据拟合良好。

利用构建的水土耦合数值模型，分析了研究区地下水位变化引起的地面沉降动态特征及不同地下水开采条件下地面沉降的演化趋势。模拟结果表明，2018-2022年在整体水位下降速率平均为1.05m/y，地面沉降变化具有明显区域性，形成了以辛安水库附近（永安镇）、广南水库附近（丁庄镇）、龙池镇和下营镇为沉降中心的沉降漏斗，各沉降区相互关联扩展，导致沉降量和面积逐渐扩大。在保持现状采水强度下，预计到2024年部分地区的最大沉降量将超过600mm，到2026年将达到679mm。通过分析各分区地面沉降对地下水减采量的响应情况，发现将地下水开采减量20%后，可有效减小地面沉降影响。

研究结果初步揭示了黄河三角州典型形变区域的地面沉陷动态变化特征与演变趋势，可为该区域地面沉降的防控治理及地下水合理开发提供参考。

The Yellow River Delta is located in an important economic development area along the eastern coast of China, with a unique formation background and sedimentary environment. For a long time, excessive exploitation of regional groundwater has caused a decrease in groundwater level, resulting in soil loss of water and compression, leading to widespread and complex ground subsidence and secondary disasters, which have had a serious impact on the local economy, environment, and social development. However, there is still a lack of in-depth and systematic research on the settlement disasters caused by groundwater changes in the region. Therefore, this article takes the Yellow River Delta region as the research area, uses time-series InSAR (Inferential Synthetic Aperture Radar) technology to obtain the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of ground deformation, and constructs a coupling model between groundwater flow field and ground settlement based on measured data using the GMS (Groundwater Modeling System) - SUB module, analyzing and revealing the dynamic evolution law of ground settlement caused by groundwater changes. The main contents and results of the thesis are as follows:

(1) The time-series InSAR technology was used to monitor the surface deformation of the Yellow River Delta over a long period of time from 2018 to 2022, and the overall changes in land subsidence in the region, as well as the spatiotemporal distribution and evolution characteristics of typical regional deformation, were obtained. The results show that ground subsidence is widespread in the region, with uneven spatial distribution and significant differences in subsidence magnitude; The coherent points near the exploitation area of Shengli Oilfield in the northeast of Hekou District and Kenli District, as well as the southwest and northeast sides of Gubei Reservoir, have a relatively high subsidence rate. Among them, the coherent points with the highest subsidence rate are located 2km west of the exploitation area of Shengli Oilfield and 9km east of Xianhe Town, with a subsidence rate of 389.8mm/y. Ground subsidence is mainly attributed to the reduction of internal pressure of the reservoir and the compaction of underground rock layers after the excessive exploitation of oil and gas reservoirs in the oilfield; The ground subsidence in the eastern part of Dongying District, the northeastern part of Guangrao County, the northern part of Shouguang City, the northern part of Hanting District, and the northern part of Changyi City is attributed to the compression of aquifers and overlying strata caused by groundwater exploitation.

(2) Based on typical borehole sampling test data and groundwater level monitoring data in the research area, combined with finite difference method, a hydrogeological conceptual model was constructed using GMS software, including 5 layers and 10 zones, with a focus on simulating 2 confined aquifers; Secondly, based on the hydrogeological conceptual model, a mathematical model is constructed and solved; Finally, establish a numerical model based on the mathematical model, that is, discretize the mathematical model. Considering the time lag of clay interlayer drainage and compression, the model parameters were adjusted based on measured data to construct a coupled settlement model suitable for the study area. The simulation results of the model fit well with the monitoring data.

(3) Using the constructed soil water coupling numerical model, the dynamic characteristics of ground subsidence caused by changes in groundwater level in the study area and the evolution trend of ground subsidence under different groundwater extraction conditions were analyzed. The simulation results show that from 2018 to 2022, the average rate of overall water level decline is 1.05m/y, and the changes in ground subsidence have obvious regional characteristics, forming a subsidence funnel centered around Xin'an Reservoir (Yong'an Town), Guangnan Reservoir (Dingzhuang Town), Longchi Town, and Xiaying Town. The various subsidence areas are interconnected and expand, leading to a gradual increase in subsidence volume and area. While maintaining the current water extraction intensity, it is expected that the maximum settlement in some areas will exceed 600mm by 2024 and reach 679mm by 2026. By analyzing the response of ground subsidence to groundwater reduction in each zone, it was found that reducing groundwater extraction by 20% can effectively reduce the impact of ground subsidence.

The research results have preliminarily revealed the dynamic changes and evolution trends of ground subsidence in the Yellow River Delta region, which can provide reference for the prevention and control of ground subsidence and the rational development of groundwater in the region.

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