随着我国煤矿开采深度的增加，地应力、瓦斯压力随之升高，井下开采条件也越发复杂，煤与瓦斯突出（以下简称突出）危险也越来越严重。对突出机理的深入研究是制定突出防治措施，构建突出预测预警模型的重要基础。国内外学者对于突出机理进行了广泛的研究，并提出了多种假说，从不同侧面解释了突出过程中的各种现象。其中，许多突出机理假说都将突出的发动归结为煤岩体系统的失稳。然而，这些假说并没有构建出严格的煤岩体系统失稳的数学模型，对于系统稳定性问题的分析，非线性动力学是一种有效的方法，虽然已有部分学者借助非线性动力学研究突出发动时的失稳问题，但却并没有用到非线性动力学中最基础的研究方法，即通过构建描述系统演化的相空间，绘制相图，以几何的形式定性地表征系统的稳定性。本文将借助非线性动力学中研究系统稳定性的基础理论和方法，通过多种途径绘制煤岩体系统的相图，并用相图演化过程中的结构稳定性和分岔来研究突出发动的机理。

       根据非线性动力学的理论，系统的失稳主要是由于其本身的非线性性质造成的，而岩体的非线性性质主要包括几何非线性和材料非线性。为此，基于突出发动的基本规律，分别分析了煤岩体系统两种非线性性质的主要影响因素，同时分析了突出发动过程中煤壁失稳形式和影响因素，为后续建模提供支撑。

       以最简单的单轴压缩条件下岩体系统的稳定性为例，分别构建了软硬组合岩块发生压垮和单一岩块发生剪切滑移的失稳模型。采用岩块下缩量和加载载荷作为相空间的状态变量，基于力学分析绘制相图。通过对相图的分析可知，组合岩块在单轴压缩条件下的失稳形式主要是极值点失稳，单一岩块的剪切滑移则属于分岔失稳。

       对于复杂系统，无法构建前述单轴压缩条件下的演化相图，这时可用主应力迹线图作为岩体系统在特定状态下的相图。分别对突出发动时煤壁挤出、压垮和折断这三种典型的岩体失稳形式进行数值模拟，绘制了各自的主应力迹线图，分析了应力场的拓扑及部分参数变化对应力场拓扑演化的影响，得出了为了防止突出发动所需要维持的应力场拓扑形态。

With the increased depth of coal seams mined, the in-situ stress and gas pressure rise accordingly. The conditions of underground mining, therefore, are increasingly complex, and the danger of coal and gas outburst ( hereinafter referred to as outburst ) becomes more and more serious. The in-depth study on the outburst mechanism serves as the important foundation of the formulation of outburst prevention measures and the establishment of outburst prediction and early warning models. Scholars at home and abroad have conducted extensive research on the mechanism, and proposed numerous hypotheses which explain various phenomena in the process of outburst from different aspects. Many of these hypotheses attribute the outburst to the instability of coal-rock mass system. However, these hypotheses have failed to develop a strict mathematical model of the instability of coal-rock mass system. Nonlinear dynamics is an effective method for the analysis of system stability. Although some scholars have adopted the dynamics to study the instability problem during the outburst, they have not used the most basic research method in nonlinear dynamics, that is, the drawing of phase diagram by constructing a phase space which display the system evolution, to qualitatively show the stability of the system in geometric form. In this paper, the basic theory and method of studying system stability in nonlinear dynamics are used to draw the phase diagram of coal-rock mass system through various ways, and the mechanism of outburst initiation is studied by structural stability and bifurcation in the evolution process of phase diagram. According to the theory of nonlinear dynamics, the instability of the system is mainly caused by its own nonlinear properties, and the nonlinear properties of rock mass mainly include geometric nonlinearity and material nonlinearity. Therefore, based on the basic law of outburst initiation, the main influencing factors of two nonlinear properties of coal-rock mass system are analyzed respectively. Meanwhile, forms and influencing factors of coal wall failure during outburst initiation are also evaluated, which provides support for subsequent modeling. Taking the stability of rock mass system under the simplest uniaxial compression condition as an example, the instability models of soft and hard composite rock block collapse and single rock block shear slip are constructed respectively. The under-rock shrinkage and loading load are used as the state variables of the phase space, and the phase diagram is drawn based on the mechanical analysis. Through the analysis of the phase diagram, it can be seen that the instability form of the combined rock block under uniaxial compression is mainly the extreme point instability, and the shear slip of the single rock block belongs to the bifurcation instability. For complex systems, it is impossible to construct the evolutionary phase diagram under the aforementioned uniaxial compression conditions. Under this context, the principal stress trace diagram can be used as the phase diagram of the rock mass system in a specific state. The three typical rock mass instability forms of coal wall extrusion, collapse and fracture during outburst initiation are numerically simulated respectively, and their respective principal stress trace diagrams are drawn. The influence of the topology of the stress field and the change of some parameters on the topology evolution of the stress field is analyzed, and the topology of the stress field that needs to be maintained in order to prevent outburst initiation is obtained.

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