在全球能源结构低碳转型进程中，燃煤电厂的升级路径引发技术革新思考。当前能源格局中，燃煤机组仍维持着全球三分之一的电能产出，其设备服役年限与产业运行惯性的双重制约，使得渐进式减排方案具有现实必要性。碳捕集、利用、封存技术（CCUS技术）凭借其兼容性优势正实现角色跃迁——在保障现有能源体系稳定运行的同时，可实现机组碳排放强度下降至基准值10%以内。这种兼具设施延续性与高效减排的双重属性，正推动该技术从辅助选项转变为煤电行业可持续发展的必要支撑。

本研究聚焦于燃煤电厂引入CCUS技术这一关键议题，通过技术预见视角下的博弈论模型，为燃煤电厂的低碳转型提供了较全面的策略框架。首先，本研究通过词频分析法，系统梳理了CCUS领域的核心技术，并运用Fisher-Pry模型，预测了在2035年左右可能成熟的前沿技术，为燃煤电厂的CCUS技术引入提供了前瞻性指导。并根据预测结果规划燃煤电厂引入CCUS路径。其次，本研究选取关键CCUS技术构建了政府—燃煤电厂、同质燃煤电厂以及燃煤电厂 供应链上下游企业的三种博弈论模型，深入剖析了CCUS技术引入过程中各主体的行为演化路径，揭示了CCUS技术推广的内在驱动力与制约因素。最后，基于博弈模型的分析结果，揭示了政府、企业和供应链各方在CCUS推广中的博弈关系，说明了政策激励与市场机制如何相互作用以影响企业的投资策略，涵盖了经济激励机制设计、市场化推广方案及产业链合作策略等内容。同时，围绕技术创新支持、政策保障、市场机制和跨企业合作等方面，为政策制定者提出了系统的综合措施，以确保CCUS技术的有效落地与推广。

研究结论表明，燃煤电厂引入CCUS技术不仅是实现低碳转型的关键环节，也是能源行业整体绿色转型的重要推动力。政策设计（如容量电价机制和碳市场激励）能够有效调动燃煤电厂的投资意愿，而政府补贴和碳税的合理设定，可以显著加快技术应用的进程。政府和企业各方的协同作用是推动这一进程的核心动力，本研究为燃煤电厂和政府提供了理论支持和实际操作指导，对CCUS技术的大规模应用具有参考价值。

In the global transition toward a low-carbon energy structure, the upgrading pathways of coal-fired power plants have sparked reflections on technological innovation. Within the current energy landscape, coal-fired units still account for one-third of global electricity generation. The dual constraints of equipment lifespan and industrial operational inertia render gradual emission reduction solutions practically imperative. Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) technology is undergoing a strategic elevation through its compatibility advantages – while ensuring the stable operation of existing energy systems, it can reduce carbon emission intensity of power units to below 10% of baseline levels. This dual capability of infrastructure continuity and high-efficiency decarbonization is driving its transition from a supplementary option to an essential pillar for sustainable development in the coal power industry.

This study focuses on the critical issue of implementing CCUS technology in coal-fired power plants, providing a comprehensive strategic framework for their low-carbon transition through game-theoretic modeling under a technology foresight perspective. First, the research systematically identifies core CCUS technologies using term frequency analysis and employs the Fisher-Pry model to forecast cutting-edge technologies likely to mature around 2035, offering forward-looking guidance for CCUS adoption in coal-fired power plants. Based on these predictions, a phased roadmap for CCUS deployment is formulated. Second, the study constructs three game-theoretic models—government vs. power plants, homogeneous power plant competition, and power plant-supply chain stakeholder interactions—to analyze behavioral evolution among key actors during CCUS implementation. This reveals intrinsic drivers and barriers to CCUS adoption, clarifying how policy incentives and market mechanisms jointly influence corporate investment decisions. Finally, leveraging insights from the game analysis, the study elucidates the interplay between government, enterprises, and supply chain stakeholders in CCUS promotion. It proposes systematic policy measures encompassing economic incentive design, market-oriented promotion schemes, market mechanism and industrial chain collaboration strategies. Additionally, actionable recommendations are provided for policymakers, emphasizing technological innovation support, regulatory safeguards, and cross-sectoral cooperation to ensure effective CCUS deployment.

Academic translation: The research findings indicate that the introduction of CCUS technology in coal-fired power plants not only constitutes a crucial step for achieving low-carbon transition, but also serves as a significant driving force for the comprehensive green transformation of the energy sector. Policy instruments (such as capacity-based electricity pricing mechanisms and carbon market incentives) can effectively stimulate investment willingness in coal-fired power plants, while appropriately designed government subsidies and carbon tax frameworks can substantially accelerate the technological implementation process. The collaborative efforts between governmental entities and enterprises emerge as the core momentum propelling this transition. This study provides both theoretical support and practical guidance for coal-fired power plants and policymakers, offering valuable references for large-scale deployment of CCUS technologies.

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