我国区域资源禀赋不平衡现象与经济发展差异带来了煤炭流动，国家建设各类运输通道来满足煤炭资源调度需求，产需逆向分布造就煤炭物流“西煤东运、北煤南运”的运输格局，由此形成了我国的煤炭物流网络。2021年10月我国出台的《2030年前碳达峰行动方案》要求全国进行能源结构调整、产业结构变革、技术创新，对能源产业发展提出了新要求，我国煤炭物流网络也产生新的特征。近年来煤炭物流网络密度呈现出下降趋势，供给中心朝我国西北地区转移，煤炭消耗地点不断集中，这对我国不同区域的运输通道的运输能力提出了新的要求。研究碳达峰视角下煤炭物流网络演变规律，能够分析我国煤炭物流网络运力瓶颈，优化煤炭物流基础设施，保障煤炭稳定供应与能源安全。

本文首先使用社会网络分析研究了我国煤炭物流网络现状，进一步讨论碳达峰对煤炭物流网络影响机理，然后根据省域煤炭产业集中程度构建碳达峰异质情景，使用系统动力学与灰度预测相结合的方法预测我国煤炭物流需求，最后使用复杂网络理论模拟网络结构演变。结果表明：（1）碳达峰目标提出之前，我国煤炭消费水平整体呈现出上升趋势，煤炭整体供需平衡，但存在区域煤炭供需矛盾；（2）2016-2020年间，我国煤炭物流网络规模变小，煤炭资源运输总量没有下降，省域煤炭物流量上升，煤炭物流网络抗风险能力有一定下降，煤炭物流网络社团划分特点更加明确，煤炭物流网络轴辐式特点明显；（3）碳达峰目标提出之后，2021-2025年间，煤炭消耗向中西部转移，西部煤炭消耗集中度提升，煤炭跨省供给中心逐步往“三西”地区集中，资源丰富地区煤炭生产能力有待加强，煤炭区域间供需矛盾逐渐缓和，煤炭长线运输压力减小，省内煤炭运输压力增大；（4）“三西”地区依旧是我国最大的煤炭供给基地，江西、广西、安徽可能会成为较大的煤炭中转基地，需要重点关注这些地区周边的煤炭运输能力能否满足需求。通过以上研究，可为我国煤炭生产和运输部门调整煤炭产能与物流运输能力安排提供参考，对保障煤炭稳定供应及能源安全具有一定价值。

The imbalanced regional resource endowment and economic development differences in China have led to the flow of coal. The country has built various transportation channels to meet the demand for coal resource scheduling, and the reverse distribution of production and demand has created a transportation pattern of "coal transportation from the west to the east, and coal transportation from the north to the south" in coal logistics, thus forming China's coal logistics network. In October 2021, China issued the "Action Plan for Carbon Peak before 2030", which requires the country to carry out energy structure adjustment, industrial structure transformation, and technological innovation, posing new requirements for the development of the energy industry. China's coal logistics network also has new characteristics. In recent years, the density of coal logistics network has shown a downward trend, with the supply center shifting towards the northwest region of China, and the coal consumption locations continuously concentrating. This has put forward new requirements for the transportation capacity of transportation channels in different regions of China. Studying the evolution law of coal logistics network from the perspective of carbon peak can analyze the bottleneck of transportation capacity in China's coal logistics network, optimize coal logistics infrastructure, and ensure stable coal supply and energy security. It can also fully optimize the allocation and application of coal resources, improve the efficiency of coal resource allocation, and help achieve the dual carbon goal.

This research uses social network analysis to study the current situation of China's coal logistics network, discusses the impact mechanism of carbon peaking on the coal logistics network, constructs a heterogeneous scenario of carbon peaking based on the concentration level of the provincial coal industry, uses a combination of system dynamics and grayscale prediction to predict China's coal logistics demand, and uses complex network theory to simulate the evolution of network structure. The research results indicate that: (1) the overall level of coal consumption in China has shown an upward trend in recent years, with an overall balance between coal supply and demand, but there are regional coal supply and demand contradictions; (2) From 2016 to 2020, China's coal logistics network showed a trend of decreasing in scale, with no decrease in the total transportation of coal resources, an increase in provincial coal volume, and a certain decrease in the risk resistance ability of the coal logistics network. The characteristics of the division of coal logistics network communities are more clear, and the characteristics of the coal logistics network are obvious in terms of axis and spoke; (3) During 2021-2025, coal consumption will shift to the central and western regions, the concentration ratio of coal consumption in the western regions will increase, the trans provincial coal supply center will gradually concentrate in the "three western" regions, the coal production capacity of resource rich regions needs to be strengthened, the contradiction between supply and demand among coal regions will gradually ease, the pressure of long-term coal transportation will decrease, and the pressure of coal transportation in the province will increase; (4) The "Three West" region is still the largest coal supply base in China, and Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Anhui may become larger coal transfer bases. It is necessary to focus on whether the coal transportation capacity around these regions can meet demand. Through the research, it can provide reference for China's coal production and transportation departments to adjust coal production capacity and logistics transportation capacity arrangements, and has certain value in ensuring stable coal supply and energy security.

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