煤矿工人不安全行为是导致煤矿事故的主要原因。为降低煤矿事故发生概率，将减少煤矿工人不安全行为作为切入点，分类总结不安全行为影响因素。现有研究倾向于从正式组织角度分析预防煤矿工人不安全行为的措施，缺少从非正式组织视角探讨煤矿工人不安全行为的内容。为了从非正式组织视角补充煤矿工人行为安全管理的策略集，基于煤矿工人非正式组织、领导力和不安全行为相关理论，以非正式组织领导力分析煤矿工人不安全行为的演化路径。

本文以非正式组织领导力为研究对象，应用文献综述、理论分析、问卷调研、数值仿真、变异系数法等方法，针对非正式组织作用于不安全行为研究的不足之处，明确四点研究内容。分析、识别煤矿工人非正式组织以及非正式组织领导力的特征和作用，依据非正式组织领导力影响要素提出非正式组织领导力作用于不安全行为的理论假设；为验证理论假设存在的合理性，通过问卷调研煤矿工人对非正式组织及核心人物领导力感知情况，构建非正式组织领导力对煤矿工人不安全行为作用结构模型，验证相关假设存在的合理性；探讨非正式组织领导力对煤矿工人不安全行为的作用，建立非正式组织领导力对不安全行为的博弈模型，根据非正式组织领导力感知收益、损失、个体损失和从众损失测量值，分析非正式组织领导力作用于不安全行为的模型演化结果；采用变异系数法得出非正式组织领导力影响要素的指标权重，结合路径标准化系数排序和数值仿真结果，分析非正式组织领导力作用于不安全行为的路径，提出煤矿工人不安全行为管理措施建议。

研究表明煤矿工人非正式组织中确有核心人物连接各个局部网络，且非正式组织领导力聚焦于核心人物；核心人物的个人素养、领导风格、企业安全目标和成员态度均正向作用于非正式组织领导力，其中领导风格对非正式组织领导力的重要度最大，个人素养对非正式组织领导力的影响程度最小；在非正式组织领导力负向作用于不安全行为的数值仿真中存在临界值（1/29，1/29）曲线。上述结果显示，煤矿工人非正式组织领导力集中体现在核心人物身上，对煤矿工人的不安全行为呈现负向影响，且不同要素影响下的非正式组织领导力作用于煤矿工人不安全行为的路径具有差异性。本文对于非正式组织领导力作用煤矿工人不安全行为的研究，将一定程度上丰富煤矿工人行为安全管理理论，进一步充实煤矿工人不安全行为干预策略，帮助煤炭企业完善行为安全管理，提升煤矿安全管理水平。

The coal miners’ unsafe behavior is the main cause of coal accidents. To reduce coal accidents, starting from reducing the unsafe behavior of coal miners, the influencing factors of unsafe behavior were classified and summarized. At present, researches tend to analyze the measures to prevent coal miners’ unsafe behavior from the perspective of formal organizations, and lacks the content of exploring coal miners’ unsafe behavior from the perspective of informal organizations. In order to supplement the safety management strategy of coal mine from the aspect of informal organization, this paper will analyze unsafe behavior evolutionary path of coal miners with informal organization leadership, based on the related theories of coal miners’ informal organization, leadership and unsafe behavior.

This paper takes informal organization leadership as the research object, using methods such as literature review, theoretical analysis, questionnaire survey, numerical simulation and coefficient of variation method. In view of the insufficiency of the role of informal organizations on unsafe behavior, four research contents are identified. Analyze and identify the characteristics and functions of coal miners’ informal organization and informal organization leadership, and put forward theoretical assumptions that informal organization leadership effect on coal miners’ unsafe behavior. In order to verify theoretical assumptions’ rationality, the coal miners’ perception of informal organization and core figures’ leadership is collected through questionnaires, and a structural model of role on informal organization leadership of coal miners’ unsafe behavior was constructed to verify the relevant assumptions. Exploring the influence of informal organization leadership on coal miners’ unsafe behavior, and build a game model of informal organization leadership on unsafe behavior. Based on perceive gains, losses, individual losses and conformity losses, analyzing the model evolution results of informal organization leadership acting on unsafe behavior. Index weights of informal organization leadership factors are calculated by coefficient of variation method, combined with rank of path standardization coefficient and numerical simulation results, analyzing informal organization leadership acting on unsafe behavior and putting forward suggestions on unsafe behavior management measures of coal miners.

The paper shows that there are indeed core figures that connect various local networks in coal miners’ informal organizations, and informal organization leadership focuses on the core figures. The core figures’ personal qualities, leadership styles, corporate safety goals and members’ attitudes all have a positive effect on the informal organization. Leadership style is the most important to informal organizational leadership and personal literacy has the least impact on informal organizational leadership. There is a critical value (1/29, 1/29) curve in the numerical simulation of the negative effect of informal organization leadership on unsafe behavior. The above results show that the informal organization leadership of coal miners is concentrated in the core figures, which has a negative impact on coal miners’ unsafe behavior. There are differences between different factors of informal organization leadership and different paths of informal organization leadership affecting coal miners’ unsafe behavior. The research on coal miners’ unsafe behavior which plays a role in informal organization leadership will enrich the theory of coal miners’ unsafe behavior management to a certain extent, further enrich the intervention strategies for coal miners’ unsafe behavior, help coal enterprises conduct a stable management of coal miners’ behavioral safety, and promote a more reliable management in coal enterprises.

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