在大倾角煤层长壁开采过程中,飞矸的动力学特征量存在各种各样的不确定性，这种不确定性会使它们的值在一定范围内波动，当已知不确定参数的概率密度信息时，概率方法可有效预测飞矸动力学特征量的区间范围，但现实生活中一些不确定参数的概率密度信息常常是缺乏的。区间分析方法在不确定参数概率分布信息未知的情况下就可定量描述其可靠的变动范围，是研究这类不确定性问题的一个重要手段。 本文针对大倾角煤层长壁开采工作面飞矸动力学特征量不确定问题，以大倾角煤层长壁开采工作面飞矸为研究对象，采用基于不确定性度量方面更为方便和实用的区间分析方法，建立不确定环境下工作面飞矸动力学特征量的区间分析模型，并通过工程实例验证了该模型的可行性，具体研究内容包括： 首先，针对初始状态为静止的飞矸滚动情况，选取滚动摩擦系数和工作面倾角为不确定性参数，分别建立了初始状态为静止的条件下滚动摩擦系数具有随机性的飞矸动力学特征量的区间分析模型以及滚动摩擦系数和工作面倾角同时具有随机性的飞矸动力学特征量的区间分析模型，并与Monte Carlo方法模拟结果进行对比，对比结果表明区间分析模型计算的区间范围包含Monte Carlo方法模拟的区间范围，且偏差系数越小精确度越高。 其次，针对初始状态为自由落体的飞矸弹跳碰撞情况，选取每次碰撞的恢复系数为不确定性参数，建立了初始状态为自由落体的条件下碰撞恢复系数具有随机性的飞矸动力学特征量的区间分析模型，通过参考飞矸第2次碰撞和第3次碰撞时的区间分析模型的计算方法，以此类推得到飞矸第i次碰撞后的区间分析模型，并与Monte Carlo方法模拟结果进行对比，对比结果表明区间分析模型计算的区间范围包含Monte Carlo方法模拟的区间范围，且偏差系数越小精确度越高。 综上所述，本文建立的区间分析模型在不确定参数概率分布未知的情况下可有效预测飞矸运动过程中动力学特征量的变化范围，可为提高大倾角煤层长壁开采工作面飞矸控制技术和保障大倾角煤层安全开采提供可靠理论依据。

In the process of mining steeply dipping seam, There are various uncertainties on dynamic characteristic quantity of flying gangue, which can cause their values to fluctuate within a certain range. The probabilistic method can effectively predict the range of the dynamic characteristics of the flying gangue under the condition that the probability density information of the uncertain parameters is known. But in real life, the probability density information of some uncertain parameters is often lacking. Interval analysis method can quantitatively describe the reliable variation range under the condition that the probability distribution of uncertain factors is unknown. Interval analysis method is an important means to study such uncertainties. In this paper, Aiming at the uncertainty of the dynamic characteristics of the flying gangue of mining steeply dipping seam, Taked flying gangue of mining steeply dipping seam as research object. Used the more convenient and practical interval analysis method based on uncertainty measurement. Established the dynamic characteristics of the flying gangue motion model of the working surface under uncertain environment. The feasibility of the model is verified by practical engineering examples.The specific research content includes: Firstly, for the rolling situation of the flying gangue when Initial state is static, the rolling friction coefficient and slope inclination are selected as uncertainty parameters. Established interval analysis model of fly gangue motion with rolling friction coefficient randomness and interval analysis model of fly gangue motion with rolling friction coefficient and slope inclination are random at the same time under static initial condition respectively. And compared with the Monte Carlo simulation results. The comparison results show that the interval calculated by the interval analysis model contains the interval simulated by Monte Carlo method.The smaller the deviation coefficient, the higher the accuracy. Secondly, about collision situation of flying gangue when Initial state is free fall. The collision recovery coefficient of flying gangue are selected as uncertainty parameters. Established non probabilistic interval analysis model of the dynamic characteristics of flying gangue with random collision recovery coefficient under free fall initial state. By referring to the calculation method of the interval analysis model of the first collision and the second collision of flying gangue, The interval analysis model of the ith collision of flying gangue is obtained.And compared with the Monte Carlo simulation results. The comparison results show that the interval calculated by the interval analysis model contains the interval simulated by Monte Carlo method.The smaller the deviation coefficient, the higher the accuracy. In summary, the interval analysis model established in this paper can accurate calculation the range of variation of the dynamic characteristics during the movement of fly gangue under the condition that the probability distribution of uncertain factors is unknown. It can provide a reliable theoretical basis for improving the control technology of fly gangue of mining steeply dipping seam and ensuring the safe mining of steeply dipping seam.