陕北神南矿区地处毛乌素沙漠边缘，水文地质条件总体比较复杂，特别是柠条塔煤矿南翼更为复杂，南翼首采工作面S1210曾发生持续时间较长、涌水量较大的突水事故，迫使S1210工作面停采。而S1224工作面作为柠条塔煤矿在南翼西大巷以南重新布置的第一个工作面，如何精确合理的对该工作面的涌水量进行动态预测，对S1224工作面防治水工作有很强的指导意义。本文主要从柠条塔煤矿南翼的地质、水文地质和工程地质资料入手，以柠条塔煤矿南翼S1224工作面为主要研究重点，应用岩土水力学理论和数值模拟手段实现了在推进不同距离下工作面涌水量的动态变化预计。 工作面回采后，上覆岩层中发育采动裂隙，采动裂隙沟通含水层后，成为了良好的导水通道，即导水裂隙带。通过岩体水力学理论建立了裂隙岩体渗透系数与应力的关系，并进一步推导了采动岩体应变与渗透系数的关系。基于FISH语言，在FLAC3D流固耦合计算中实现了基于裂隙岩体渗透系数与岩体应变的耦合计算，并对S1224工作面2-2煤层回采后顶板覆岩的渗透性变化规律进行了研究。计算结果表明，工作面推进过程中上覆岩层的垂直渗透系数增大区和水平渗透系数增大区的形态和发育范围均不同。垂直渗透系数增大区形状基本呈采空区中心对称分布的“M”形，在煤壁和切眼两侧发育最高；水平渗透性增大区的形状从刚回采时的“半椭圆”形慢慢演变为“梯形”，增大区在采空区正中心上方发育最高。最后，采用GMS软件中的Modflow模块，建立了研究区的三维水文地质数值模型，并采用非稳定流计算对S1224工作面的涌水量进行了预计，结果表明，该工作面涌水量较大，随着工作面回采推进涌水量可以分为四个阶段，第一阶段为快速增大阶段（0~300m），涌水量由2.36m3/h增加到620m3/h；第二阶段为基本稳定阶段（300~700m），工作面涌水量稳定在620m3/h；第三阶段为逐渐降低阶段（700~900m），工作面涌水量逐渐减小到420m3/h；第四阶段为最终稳定阶段（900~2000m），工作面涌水量稳定在420m3/h。基于预计结果，提出了工作面防治水建议。同时，本文的工作面涌水量动态预计方法是一种新的计算思路，对其他煤矿工作面均可采用这种新思路在未回采前，进行工作面在推进不同距离下的涌水量动态预计。

Shaanbei Shennan mining area is located in the edge of Maowusu desert, the hydrogeological condition is relatively complex, especially the south limb of Ningtiaota Coal Mine is more complicated. The first coalface S1210 in south limb have happened water inrush accident, which lasted for longer time and large water inflow, forcing S1210 coalface stop working. S1224 as the rearranged first coalface in the south of west roadway in Ningtiaota Coal Mine, how to make a accurate and reasonable dynamically prediction of the water inflow in this coalface, has a strong guiding significance for the prevention and control of water in S1224 coalface. This text mainly based on the geological, hydrogeological and engineering geological data of the south limb in Ningtiaota Coal Mine. And choose S1224 coalface as the main research object, application of the rock and soil hydraulics theory and numerical simulation method realized the dynamically prediction of the water inflow in mining forward different distance of S1224 coalface. After the working face mining, the development of the mining-induced fractures in the overlying strata, and when the mining-induced fractures touch the aquifer, has become a good water flow channel, that is the water flowing fractured zone. The relationship between hydraulic conductivity and stress of fractured rock mass is established by the hydraulic theory of rock mass, and the relationship between the strain and hydraulic conductivity of mining rock is deduced. Based on the FISH language, realized the coupling calculation of the fractured rock mass hydraulic conductivity and strain in FLAC3D Fluid-solid Coupling Model Analysis System, and made a research of the overlying strata hydraulic conductivity change law on S1224 coalface after mining the 2-2seam. The calculation results show that the shape and developmental range of vertical hydraulic conductivity increases area and the horizontal hydraulic conductivity increases area in the process of advancing the working face are different. Vertical hydraulic conductivity increases area shape is symmetric distribution central of mined out area of “M” shape, in coal wall and open-off cut both sides highest development. Horizontal hydraulic conductivity increases area shape from just when mining “semi elliptical” slowly turns into "ladder" shape, and the highest of increases area is right upper in the center of mined out area. Finally，using the MODFLOW module of GMS software established the 3D hydrogeological numerical model, and predicted the water inflow of S1224 working face by unsteady flow calculation. Results show that the water inflow of S1224 working face is relative large, with the advance of working face, the water inflow can be divided into four stages. The first stage of water inflow is the rapid increase stage (0~300m), the water inflow by the 2.36m3/h increased to 620m3/h, the second stage is the basic stability stage (300~700m), the water inflow of working face is stable at 620m3/h, the third stage is gradually reducing stage (700~900m), water inflow gradually reduced to 420m3/h, the fourth stage is the final stable stage (900~2000m), the water inflow of working face is finally stable at 420m3/h. Based on the prediction results, the suggestions for the prevention and control of water in working face are put forward. At the same time, this is a new method to predict the water inflow of the working face in this paper, this new idea can be applied to predict the water inflow at different distances of other coal mine working face before mining.