古叙煤田位于西南山区与云贵高原的过渡地带。山峦起伏，沟壑纵横，地表切割较 深；斜坡松散体堆积厚度大、结构松散、稳定性差；基岩裸露、裂隙发育、风化严重； 大气降雨充沛，雨季集中，一次降雨量较大。随着地下煤炭资源的持续开采，滑坡、泥 石流、崩塌等地质灾害频发。因此，深入研究该区域采动滑坡主要影响因素，建立合理 的采动滑坡危险性评价模型，对开采引起地质灾害的防治具有重要意义和价值。 本文以四川省古叙煤田观文煤矿特殊地质、采矿条件为研究对象，在调查、分析矿 井地形地貌、地层岩性、地质构造、开采条件的基础上，对采动滑坡灾害现状进行分析， 确定采动滑坡的主要影响因素为地形地貌、坡体松散堆积体、地下开采和降雨等。运用 数值模拟计算对地下开采坡体稳定性进行模拟分析得出：地下开采引发覆岩向下沉盆地 中心移动，坡体受拉伸和挤压变形产生塑性破坏；在开采扰动作用下破坏的松散堆积体 成为滑体，滑体推移抗滑体使坡体处于欠稳定状态。分析给出了观文煤矿地质采矿条件 下，采动滑坡的主要影响因素为坡度、松散堆积体的物理性质、开采面积、坡体移动变 形、覆岩岩性及降雨，且将其分为地质、采矿和环境三大类。针对观文煤矿采动滑坡条 件，构建了相应的危险性评价模型。同时，依据各影响因子间的相对重要性，采用层次 分析法求得各影响因子的权重值。应用评价模型对观文煤矿采动滑坡危险性进行计算得 出，采动滑坡危险度D =3.2，判定该采动滑坡危险性大。 在分析一采区11905、11103 工作面开切眼位置和保护建筑物的关系的基础上，提 出11905、11103 工作面开切眼位置距离山顶最高点的平距分别为：194m、122m 和130m、 70m 两种方案，应用评价模型进行计算分析，结果表明11905、11103 工作面开切眼位 置距离山顶最高点的平距为：130m、70m 时，滑坡危险度D =2.8，滑坡可能性相对较小。 运用相似材料模拟对上述评价结果的合理性进行验证，分析了开采方案的安全可靠性。

Guxu Mine locates in transitional zone between the Southwestern mountainous area and the Yunnan-Guizhou plateau, with fluctuant mountains and vertical-horizontal ravines, where the surface erosion is fairly deep; the slope loose masses accumulates thickly, whose structure is unstable and loose; the bed rock is exposed outside and gets weathering with fracture developing seriously; the precipitation is abundant and the rainy season concentrates, thus the single precipitation is large. As the continuous mining underground, the geological disaster involving landslide, debris flow and collapse happens frequently. Consequently, it’s essential to study the main impact factor of mining collapse in this area and to establish reasonable danger-forecasting system, which is significant and valuable to prevention of geological disaster. The research in this paper is in terms of the special geological mining conditions of Guanwen coal mine, locating in Guxu coal field(coalfield) in Sichuan province, it is also based on the investigation and a series analysis including landform, strata lithology, geological structure, mining conditions and present research on mining landslide(the present mining landslide situation), then it finds out that the main impact factors involves the landform, loose masses, underground miningand precipitation.The numerical simulation calculation is used to research on the mining landslide, whose results show that: the overlying strata move towards the center of the subsidence basin(gob) because of the underground mining, and there is horizontal movement towards the slope bottom at the slope top, which results in tensile and extrusion deformation and failure. With the increase of mining area, the disturbance range and the loose movement deformation of slope increase also, with extensive plastic failure. This failure increases obviously with little change on slope movement and deformation under repeated mining. The main influencing factors of mining landslide under the geological mining conditions of Guanwen coal mine are accordingly determined to be slope, loose accumulation physical properties, mining area, slope deformation and overburden lithology, and are classified into three categories i.e. geological, mining and environmental. The risk assessment model is established, in which the weight value of each influence factor is obtained by AHP method according to the relative importance among each other. The mining landslide risk D of Guanwen coal mine is calculated by the model to be 3.2, thus it is determined that the mining landslide is dangerous. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the open cut position of panel 11905 and 11103 and buildings to be protected, two mining schedules adopting different horizontal distance between the cutting hole and the mountain top are put forward, i.e., 194m and 122m for panel 11905, 130m and 70m for panel 11103, and following by the model analysis. The result indicates that when the horizontal distance is 130m and 70m respectively, the danger level D is 2.8 and the landslide is less likely to happen. The analog simulation is carried out to prove the rationality of the above evaluation, and the safety and reliability of the mining schedule are determined.