柠条塔井田位于陕北侏罗纪煤田神府矿区南部，煤层开采过程主要受到上覆延安组 与直罗组含水层的影响，不同沉积位置其富水性差异较大。以柠条塔井田南翼为研究对 象，以沉积学、岩石学、水文地质学等学科理论为指导，结合钻孔资料、测井曲线、岩 心分析和实验数据，分析了直罗组、延安组含水层的沉积特征极其对富水性的影响，系 统总结了沉积控水规律，通过多因素综合评价方法开展了富水性分区预测。研究结果对 于煤矿防治水工作具有重要的理论价值及实践参考意义。 柠条塔井田南翼直罗组为河流相沉积，延安组为三角洲相沉积，延安组和直罗组含 水层展布受到沉积相带的明显控制，平面上均呈北东-南西向条带状展布，纵向上为分流 河道砂体与分流间湾、河道砂坝与河漫滩的相互叠置。风化基岩含水层的富水性受沉积 作用和后期风化作用的双重控制，而正常基岩含水层富水性则主要受控于沉积环境。铸 体薄片分析和核磁共振实验结果表明，不同沉积微相的含水层砂岩空隙结构差异显著， 粒间孔、溶蚀孔和微裂隙的发育程度直接决定砂岩的持水能力，并进一步影响富水性。 不同微相中，河口坝微相的富水能力最强，天然堤微相的富水能力最弱。 采用基于核密度估计的 Bayes（KDE-Bayes）判别模型对风化基岩的富水性进行了 预测，模型的总体正判率达到100%，明显优于传统朴素Bayes判别模型。强富水区主 要分布在S1210工作面附近，集中在井田南部；中等富水性区大面积连续分布于研究区 中部；弱富水区和极弱富水区主要分布在研究区北部。模型预测结果与实际抽水试验数 据和井下疏放水资料相吻合。 采用层次分析法（AHP）对正常基岩的富水性进行了预测，2-2煤和3-1煤上覆正常 基岩的富水性大部分区域处于弱到极弱之间，仅有极小部分区域为中等富水性，AHP模 型的预测结果具有较高的可靠性，模型预测结果与实际抽水试验数据吻合。

Ningtiaota minefield is located in the southern part of Shenfu mine area in the Jurassic coal field of northern Shaanxi province, and the coal mining process is mainly affected by the overlying Yan'an Formation and Zhi Luo Formation aquifers, and their water-bearing properties vary greatly in different depositional locations. Taking the south wing of Ningtiaota minefield as the research object, guided by the theories of sedimentology, petrology, hydrogeology and other disciplines, and combining the drilling data, logging curves, core analysis and experimental data, we analysed the depositional characteristics of Zhi Luo and Yan'an Group aquifers, and their influence on water-bearing properties, summarised the law of depositional water-control, constructed the depositional water-control model, and carried out the prediction of water-bearing properties through the multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method. The results of the study have important theoretical value and practical reference significance for coal mine water control work.

The southern wing of Ningtiaota minefield, Zhiluo Formation is fluvial deposition, and Yan'an Formation is deltaic deposition. The spreading of aquifers in Yan'an Formation and Zhiluo Formation is controlled by the sedimentary zones, and the aquifers are spreading in a strip-like manner from north-east to south-west, and vertically, they are superimposed on each other by the diversion sand body and the diversion interbay, and the sand dams of the river and river rambling beach. The water-bearing properties of the weathered bedrock aquifer are controlled by both sedimentation and later weathering, while the water-bearing properties of the normal bedrock aquifer are mainly controlled by the depositional environment. The results of cast thin-section analyses and nuclear magnetic resonance experiments show that there are significant differences in the void structures of the sandstones of aquifers with different sedimentary microphases, and the development degree of intergranular pores, dissolution pores, and microfissures directly determines the water-holding capacity of the sandstones, and further affects the water-bearing properties. Among the different microphases, the estuarine dam microphase has the strongest water-enrichment capacity, and the natural dike microphase has the weakest water-enrichment capacity.

The water-bearing properties of weathered bedrock were predicted using the Kernel Density Estimation-based Bayes (KDE-Bayes) discriminant model, and the overall positive rate of the model reached 100%, which was significantly better than that of the traditional plain Bayes discriminant model. The strong water-bearing properties are mainly distributed near the S1210 working face and concentrated in the southern part of the wellfield; the medium water-bearing properties are continuously distributed in the central part of the study area over a large area; and the weak and very weak water-bearing properties are mainly distributed in the northern part of the study area. The results of the model prediction are highly consistent with the actual pumping test data and downhole water evacuation and discharge data.

The water-bearing properties of the normal bedrock were predicted by the hierarchical analysis method (AHP), and most of the water-bearing properties of the overlying normal bedrock of the 2^-2 coal and the 3^-1 coal are between weak and very weak, and only a small part of the areas are moderately water-bearing properties.The prediction results of the AHP model are highly reliable, which provide a scientific basis for the water-bearing properties zoning of the normal bedrock.

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